There is a lot about forecasting severe weather season across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle that is controlled regionally and even locally. This statistical analysis does not take that into account. There are too many variables that are measurable, and some that may not be, that go into the equation of a severe weather season. This study was an attempt to pick out a few variables that were measurable and see if there was a connection.
In all, a connection between GoA, GoM, Previous Precipitation and ENSO and spring tornadoes across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles seems possible. Further study is needed. This report finds correlation not causation. And because it isn’t being held to the highest of scholarly research standards, it doesn’t offer definitive results.
That said, this study finds that for the given equation – (1.15 x STDEV(GoA) ) + (1.5 x STDEV(GoM)) + (3 x STDEV(Previous Precipitation)) + (6 x STDEV(ENSO)) – used that generally speaking a negative number will yield a below average number of tornadoes and tornado days for the season while a positive number will yield an average or above average number of tornadoes and tornado days
For now, given the equation adopted by this study, it will be interesting to see what 2014 holds. For 2014, given that GoA is three standard deviations above the mean, GoM is two standard deviations above the mean, previous precipitation is two standard deviations below the mean, and ENSO is one standard deviation above the mean, the weighted total is -.45.
A negative weighted total for 2014 would suggest – given the data researched above – a one-hundred percent chance for a below average number of tornadoes and a seventy-one percent chance for a below average number of tornado days.
A cited sources page will be posted soon.