VALID 191456Z – 191811Z
SUMMARY…ONGOING CONVECTION/CELL MERGERS WITHIN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH 18Z…WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION…MID-MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED CONTINUED CONVECTION PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL…CENTERED JUST EAST OF A BATON ROUGE TO JACKSON LINE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS N MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS…WHICH IS SERVING TO TRANSPORT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED…AND PW VALUES AOA 1.75″…NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THESE SHOWERS WELL…AND THE LATEST TIME-LAGGED HRRR INDICATES A LIKELY AREA OF 1-2″ RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SAME AREA COINCIDENT WITH BEST SWATH OF LIFT/MOISTURE SUPPORT…WITH SOME AREAS OF 2-3″ RAINFALL OVER SE LA AND SOUTHERN MS…WHICH IS CO-LOCATED WITH LOWEST FLASH FLOOD VALUES (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-12 AND SOUTH OF I-20). LOCALIZED HIGHER RAIN RATES IN THESE AREAS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WHICH NUDGES TOTALS ABOVE THE 1-HR AND 3-HR FFG. THE ONLY REAL LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS…AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
