SPC considers extending Tornado Watch

The SPC is considering extending the Tornado Watch for south Mississippi:

SUMMARY…Threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will potentially focus over southeastern Louisiana and parts of southern Mississippi later tonight. A replacement watch may be considered prior to the 07Z expiration of Watches 111/113.

DISCUSSION…An expansive mesoscale convective system continues late this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley. While a considerable precipitation shield over northern Louisiana and central/northern Mississippi has limited the northward progress of a warm front, deep/moist southerly flow across the warm sector is maintaining robust convective elements within the broader system.

There has been a relative lull in severe reports recently, but a modest uptick in the potential for damaging winds (and perhaps a couple line-embedded tornadoes) may occur. With increasing large-scale ascent associated with an approaching impulse, cells should organize into a more focused meridional line from southeastern Louisiana northward into Mississippi. MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg will likely support a squall line that advances towards the central Gulf Coast through the overnight. Line-parallel low-level shear vectors suggest primarily an occasional damaging-wind threat with this line. However, the amplitude of low-level shear may also favor small-scale embedded circulations. A replacement watch could be considered prior to the 07Z expiration of Watches.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.