Low pressure development “expected” in Gulf of Mexico

Latest from the National Hurricane Center here:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or two. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Models still show the system in the Gulf of Mexico to be in a hostile environment for most of its life. Whether it is shear or dry air – life won’t be easy for it. So, even if development occurs, sudden strengthening isn’t likely.

The other wave that is out in the open Atlantic has been designated Invest 92L. Model data shows it will take a journey into the Caribbean, but may also struggle to develop.

So, no need to panic yet. But perhaps a good time to review your Hurricane plan and supplies – just to make sure you’re ready for the season.