AXNT20 KNHC 281801
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 36.8N 69.3W at 28/1500 UTC
or about 320 nm east-northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina,
moving E at 11 kt. Minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maria is a large
tropical cyclone with tropical storm force winds extending up to
200 nm from the center. Convection associated with Maria is well
north of the discussion area. It is expected to accelerate
eastward and become extratropical. See the latest NHC Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more
Hurricane Lee is centered near 33.7N 57.0W at 28/1500 UTC or
about 400 nm ENE of Bermuda. Lee is moving N at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Lee is a small tropical cyclone with
numerous moderate scattered strong convection within 120 nm of
the center. It is expected to accelerate east-northeastward and
weaken. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa along 26W/27W is moving
west at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very moist environment,
and a sharp 700 mb trough. Widely scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm of either side of the wave axis.
A tropical wave in the west-central Atlantic along 54W is moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is evident in 700 mb wind fields
and is generating isolated moderate convection within 180 nm of
either side of the wave axis.
A tropical wave over Central America along 88W is moving west at
10 kt. The wave is embedded within a moist environment, and a
700 mb trough. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of
either side of the wave axis.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W
to 05N25W to 08N36W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends
from 08N36W to 13N52W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from
13N56W to 11N66W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 11.5N-15N between 57W-62W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A weak cold front along the Texas coast is expected to stall and
dissipate over the NW Gulf during the next 24-48 hours. High
pressure will build behind the front through Friday. A surface
trough over the Bay of Campeche is producing scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm W of the trough
axis. An upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near
28N84W with strong subsidence. Upper level diffluence SE of the
upper low is enhancing showers and convection over W Cuba, the
Straits of Florida, and the Bahamas. Expect showers and
convection to increase over the SW Gulf over the next 24 hours.
Numerous showers over the Windward Islands are advecting from
the Atlantic. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough
extends into N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over
Panama, and northern Colombia has scattered moderate convection.
In the upper levels, diffluence from the NE Gulf upper level low
is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
over the central Caribbean from 15N-19N between 78W-82W. Expect
over the next 24 hours for more showers and convection to advect
over the E Caribbean.
Presently fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.
Two tropical waves moving across the basin are discussed above.
A plume of moisture being pulled northeast across the Bahamas
and surrounding waters by an upper low over the NE Gulf of
Mexico supports numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms W
of 63W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across much of the
remainder of the central and the eastern Atlantic, anchored by
1025 mb high pressure centered along 32N between 30W and 40W.
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