AXNT20 KNHC 291705
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Maria centered near 37.5N 60.1W at 29/1500 UTC is
accelerating east-northeast at 27 kt. Minimum central pressure
is 988 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. See the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Lee centered near 40.1N 49.5W at 29/1500 UTC is
racing northeast at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
992 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing a large disorganized area of clouds and showers from
the NW Caribbean across Cuba to southern Florida. A weak low is
expected to form from this system near SW Florida this weekend.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development
of the low during the next 2-3 days. This system has a moderate
chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.
A tropical wave in the E Atlantic is along 32W, moving west at
10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a moist environment, with a
sharp 700 mb trough noted in model guidance. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis.
A tropical wave extends over the E Caribbean from the Virgin
Islands to Venezuela between 63W-65W, moving west at 10-15 kt.
The wave is embedded in a very moist environment, and is evident
in 700 mb wind fields. Diffluent flow aloft is enhancing deep
convection east of the wave axis from 09N-20N between 59W-64W.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N20W to 07N30W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to
08N50W to 12N65W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 03N-08N between 14W-29W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
The tail end of a stationary front extends from the Florida
Panhandle near 31N85W to 28N94W near the Texas coast. The front
is expected to dissipate during the next 24 hours. A stationary
1006 mb surface low is located over the Bay of Campeche near
20N94W with scattered moderate convection. An upper level low is
centered over the NE Gulf near 27N86W with strong subsidence.
Upper level diffluence SE of the center is enhancing convection
over SE Gulf.
A tropical wave moving into the central Caribbean will enhance
cloudiness and convection in the eastern half of the Caribbean
during the next 24 hours. A large area of active convection is
east of a trough axis that extends from the Gulf of Honduras to
western Cuba. This trough and associated convection is expected
to drift slowly north-northwestward through the weekend. The
eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends into
the SW Caribbean with isolated moderate convection over Panama
and northern Colombia. Little change is expected through Sat.
Mostly fair weather over Hispaniola is expected to transition to
afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms during
the next 12 hours, then become mostly cloudy overnight.
A broad plume of moisture being pulled northeast across the
northern Bahamas and surrounding waters by an upper-level low in
the E Gulf of Mexico supports widely scattered showers west of
74W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across much of the
remainder of the central and the eastern Atlantic, anchored by
1027 mb high pressure centered near 34N35W.
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