AXNT20 KNHC 061146
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 17.8N 84.8W at 06/1200 UTC,
about 100 nm northeast of Isla Guanaja Honduras and about 200 nm
south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico, moving north-northwest at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 14N-22N between 79W-86W.
See the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave axis extends from 15N34W to 07N38W, moving west
at 10-15 kt. The wave is low-amplitude and located in an area of
deep level moisture. An ASCAT pass Thu showed fresh to strong
low-level cyclonic winds around the wave axis with strong to
near gale force southerly winds south of the ITCZ. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm W of wave axis.
A tropical wave axis extends from 19N43W to 08N49W, moving west
at 10 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb between
40W-50W deep layer moisture. Isolated convection is within 180
nm either side of the wave axis.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 10N35W to 12N47W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-14N between
GULF OF MEXICO…
Northeasterly flow aloft persists over most of the basin between
an upper-level anticyclone centered over western Mexico and an
upper-level low centered near the Bay of Campeche, with a sharp
trough axis extending to near the Florida panhandle. A 1008 mb
low is near 27N87W with a surface trough southward across the
Yucatan Channel. The low will move west and weaken to a trough
later today. Widespread light-moderate convection is observed
south of 27N and east of 87W. By early Saturday, Tropical Storm
Nate will move northward into the south-central Gulf waters.
Primary focus remains the effects of Tropical Storm Nate across
the western Caribbean and Central America. Please see above for
details. In addition, a surface trough embedded within a low
pressure centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico extends southward
through the Yucatan Channel to north of Nate. This feature is
enhancing convection across the area west of 80W. Outside of the
influence of Tropical Storm Nate, moderate to occasionally fresh
trades prevail east of 75W.
Partly cloudy skies continue across the island. A surface trough
to the northeast extends into the Mona Passage, and an upper-
level trough currently over Puerto Rico will introduce scattered
showers and thunderstorms into the area Friday.
South-southwesterly flow prevails over the western Atlantic with
a favorable upper-level divergent environment W of 72W enhancing
scattered showers north of 26N. A weak tropical wave is analyzed
as a surface trough extending from 24N64W to the Mona Passage
near 19N67W. A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends
from 32N38W to 23N53W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are occurring within 150 nm either side of the front. A surface
ridge anchored by a weak 1019 mb high centered near 28N27W
prevails across the eastern Atlantic.
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