AXNT20 KNHC 091742
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.4N 39.9W at 09/1500
UTC or about 747 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NNE at 4 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from
31N-34N between 32W-40W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.
A tropical is over the E Atlantic with axis from 13N26W to
02N25W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist area as
noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface tough is well defined.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis from 20N59W to
10N60W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted
by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are both well
defined. Isolated moderate convection is from 18N-23N between
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N13W to
11N23W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 06N46W. Besides
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 28W-39W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A surface trough extends from S Mississippi near 30N88W to 29N91W
to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N93W. Isolated moderate convection
is within 45 nm of the trough. Surface ridging is over the E Gulf
producing 10-15 kt SE winds. Expect the surface trough to move N
over the next 24 hours. Also expect a cold front to come off the
Texas coast Tuesday evening with convection.
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Convection is mostly N
and E of the wave axis. See above. The eastern extent of the
Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection
over Costa Rica, Panama, and the SW Caribbean, S of 11N.
Presently, 10-15 kt easterly tradewinds are over the Caribbean.
In the upper levels, a small upper level low is over the coast of
Nicaragua near 13N83W. Expect an increase of convection over the E
Caribbean over the next 24 hours due to the tropical wave. Also
expect the convection over the SW Caribbean to persist.
Presently, scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic, and
NE of the island. In addition, scattered moderate convection is S
of Hispaniola. Expect conditions to persist for the next 24
Tropical Storm Ophelia is over the central Atlantic. See above.
Two tropical waves are also moving across the basin. See above. A
surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 26N77W to 21N77W,
mostly void of convection. Another surface trough is over the
tropics from 18N50W to 11N50W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 11N-19N between 46W-57W. A 1028 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 36N56W. Surface ridging
extends SW from this high to the E Gulf of Mexico. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic
near 25N64W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-28N between
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