AXNT20 KNHC 101048
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.9N 38.8W at 10/0900
UTC about 686 nm west-southwest of the Azores, moving southeast
at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Scattered moderate
convection is from 26N-36N between 32W-41W. See the latest
Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.
A tropical wave in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
14N34W to 02N34W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in a
moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well
defined in scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-11N between 30W-35W.
A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N64W to 10N65W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a
moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb
trough are both well defined. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave mainly north of 17N and east of 74W enhanced
also by the presence of an upper-level low centered near 24N66W.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to 06N57W. Besides
convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-12N between 36W-41W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A surface ridge extends across the basin from the central
Atlantic. This pattern supports minimal convection over the area.
A surface trough extends from 27N83W to 23N81W. A small area of
scattered moderate convection is moving across the southern
portion of the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 20N. This activity
developed over the southern Yucatan Peninsula and is spreading
offshore. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail to the east of
the trough. This winds were noted in scatterometer data over the
Florida Straits area. This conditions will continue through the
next 24 hours. A cold front is expected to push off the Texas
coast this evening with active convection expected across the
northwest Gulf. This activity will follow the front as it moves
across the northern portion of the basin.
A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean with
scattered showers mainly north of 17N and east of 74W. See the
section above for details. The eastern extent of the Pacific
monsoon trough is producing scattered showers over Costa Rica,
Panama, and the southwest Caribbean mainly south of 11N. Gentle
trade winds prevail over most of the Caribbean. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.
Scattered showers are observed south of the island supported by
the proximity of an upper-level low currently centered near
24N66W. This activity will diminish overnight. Scattered showers
are expected to develop over land in the afternoon/evening hours
as the upper-level low drifts west and a tropical wave approaches
from the east.
Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the central Atlantic. See the section
above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the central
Atlantic. For more details, see the section above. A surface ridge
extends across the west Atlantic west of 70W with fair weather. To
the east, an upper-level low is centered near 24N66W enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 18N-27W between 55W-67W. A
surface trough accompanies this activity extending from 28N60W to
25N64W. Another trough extends from 20N51W to 16N52W with isolated
showers. A similar pattern is expected through the next 24 hours.
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