AXNT20 KNHC 101742
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.5N 38.3W at 10/1500
UTC about 677 nm west-southwest of the Azores, moving southeast
at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the center. See the latest
Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.
A tropical wave in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
14N36W to 02N37W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a moist
area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well
defined in scatterometer data. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-14N between 33W-43W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis.
A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N67W to 09N68W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a
moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb
trough are both well defined. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the Leeward Islands from 15N-19N between
62W-65W. Wiedely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
15N-20N between 65W-69W.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
06N25W to 09N34W to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to
06N57W. Besides convection associated with the tropical wave,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-06N
between 10W-13W, and from 04N-08N between 15W-19W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A prefrontal trough is along the coast of Texas from Houston to
Corpus Christi to Brownsville. Scattered moderate convection is
within 45 nm of the trough. Similar convection is along the coast
of Mexico from Matamoros to Veracruz. Another surface trough is
over the Bay of Campeche from 21N93W to 17N92W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm W of the trough axis. A third surface
trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 26N85W to 22N84W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-25N between 86W-88W.
Elsewhere, N Florida and the NE Gulf is experiencing surface
ridging from a 1025 mb high centered over the W Atlantic near
36N56W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over
Georgia near 32N83W. Anticyclonic upper level flow is over the NE
Gulf with strong subsidence. Expect a cold front to extend from S
Louisiana to Tampico Mexico in 24 hours with convection.
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Further W,
scattered moderate convection is between E Cuba and Jamaica from
18N-20N between 74W-79W. The eastern extent of the Pacific
monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over
the SW Caribbean from 10N-13N between 80W-84W. Presently, 10-15
kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a
small upper level low is over Belize near 18N88W. Another upper
level low is centered N of Hispaniola near 23N69W. Upper level
diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection over the
Leeward Islands. Expect both upper level lows to move west over
the next 48 hours. Also expect the convection over the SW
Caribbean to persist.
Presently, isolated moderate convection is over the eastern
Dominican Republic. Expect convection to advect over Hispaniola
over the next 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical
wave is also moving across the central Atlantic. See above.
A surface trough is N of the Leeward Islands from 24N64W to
20N67W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 20N-27N between 50W-66W. A 1025 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 36N56W. Surface ridging extends
SW from this high to the E Gulf of Mexico. Of note in the upper
levels, the upper level low centered N of Hispaniola near 23N69W
has scattered showers within 120 nm of the center. More
importantly, upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing
the convection between 50W-66W.
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