AXNT20 KNHC 111021
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 30.2N 37.0W at 11/0900
UTC about 682 nm southwest of the Azores, moving southeast at 5
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Scattered moderate convection
is from 27N-31N between 30W-40W. See the latest Advisory/Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
13N41W to 04N46W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a moist
area, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well
defined in scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N-13N between 42W-48W.
A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N70W to 11N70W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is
becoming diffuse as a mid-to-upper level low centered to the north
of Hispaniola dominates the area. Isolated showers are noted over
the southern portion of the wave south of 11N.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
09N29W. The ITCZ continues from 09N29W to 08N43W, then resumes
from 07N47W to 08N60W. Aside fro the convection related to the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N
GULF OF MEXICO…
A cold front off the coast of Texas and Mexico extends across the
northwest Gulf waters from 29N91W to 22N98W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed near the front mainly south of 26N and west
of 96W. To the east, a surface trough is over the far east Gulf
waters from 30N83W to 26N82W. Another surface trough extends over
the Bay of Campeche enhancing scattered moderate convection south
of 22N between 90W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate easterlies across the basin. Expect during the next 24
hours for the southern portion of the cold front to become
stationary across the western Gulf with convection.
A tropical wave is moving into the central Caribbean. See the
section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the basin. A diffluent flow aloft is
supporting scattered showers over the far west Caribbean west of
82W. An upper-level low centered N of Hispaniola near 24N72W is
enhancing convection over the northeast Caribbean north of 16N and
east of 66W. This activity is affecting the far east Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Expect the upper-level low to move west
over the next 48 hours. With this, the convection will also move
west. Little change is expected elsewhere.
Isolated showers are observed as a tropical wave extends along
the eastern portion of the island. Expect for more convection to
develop as an upper-level low north of the island drifts west.
Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the
central Atlantic. See the section above for more information.
An upper-level low is located near 24N72W. This system is
reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 28N69W to
24N71W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-28N between
68W-76W. Another surface trough extends from 28N60W to 20N64W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within the trough from
24N-27N between 58W-66W. Another area of moderate convection
extends from 20N-24N between 48W-56W. Surface ridging prevails
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