AXNT20 KNHC 121000
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 30.3N 35.6W at 12/0900 UTC or
630 nm southwest of the Azores moving northeast at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is from 28N-32N between 32W-38W. See the
latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis that extends
from 16N48W to 06N51W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave
coincides with 700 mb troughing and 850 mb relative vorticity max
along the wave axis near 10N. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 07N-18N between 43W-51W.
A tropical wave is over the southwest Caribbean with axis extending
from 14N79W to 06N79W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A low amplitude
700 mb troughing is noted over Central America. Despite the fact
that abundant moisture prevails in the area, no significant
convection is observed with this wave at this time.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 07N47W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave along 50W, no significant
convection is observed at this time with any of these boundaries.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A stationary front extends from 30N87W across the northwest Gulf
to 26N96W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 18N-24N and west of 95W. A thermal trough is
noted to the east of the front extending from 22N91W to 19N93W
with scattered showers. Another surface trough was analyzed over
the northeast waters from 30N83W to 26N83W. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds prevail across most of the basin except to the west
of the front from 19N-26W. In this area, moderate to fresh
northwesterly winds are noted in scatterometer data. Expect for
the front to weaken to a trough and become diffuse through Friday.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected through the upcoming
Convection associated with an upper-level low centered over
northern Cuba near 22N78W has diminished. At this time, isolated
moderate convection is from 16N-20N and west of 82W. A tropical
wave is moving across the southwest Caribbean. See the section
above for details. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the whole basin. Little change is expected
through the next 24 hours.
An upper-level low centered west of the island and is expected to
continue drifting west during the next couple of days. Upper
level divergent southwesterly flow is expected to develop over the
area supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
next 24-48 hours mostly in the afternoon/evening hours.
Hurricane Ophelia is over the central Atlantic, while a tropical
wave is along 51W. See the sections above for details. An upper-
level low centered over northern Cuba near 22N78W is supporting
scattered showers affecting the waters west of 70W. A surface
trough extends from 28N76W to 24N77W. To the east, another trough
extends from 28N68W to 21N71W. Isolated showers are noted along
these features. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms
accompanies a surface trough that extends from 24N53W to 21N58W.
The convection is from 19N-24N between 51W-55W. Surface ridging
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