I’m not a doctor. I’m just a scientist. I’m here to bring you some information directly from official sources and offer some context to that information. As always, please follow the CDC guidelines.
Speaking on guidelines, the President today highlighted a new social distancing recommendation to continue our efforts to slow the spread through the end of April.
The latest Statistics
WHO Numbers
Total Worldwide Cases: 634,835
Total Worldwide Deaths: 29,957
CDC Numbers
Total United States cases: 122,653
— Travel-related: 712 (not updated)
— Close contact: 1326 (not updated)
— Under investigation: 83,318 (not updated)
Total deaths: 2,112
States reporting cases: 50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands
COVID-19 cases reported by other medical sites:
Johns Hopkins
Total Worldwide Cases: 662,073
Total Worldwide Deaths: 30,780
Total Worldwide Recovered: 139,426
Total US cases: 142,106
Total US deaths: 2,479
Total US recovered: 2,686
These numbers differ because they are constantly being updated rather than just a snapshot upgrade in numbers once per day.
Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at Univ. of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, put a chart together of the growth. As it notes, it is pulling numbers from the Johns Hopkins totals. It shows the double-time of cases as about two-and-a-half days.
While Sunday’s data has not been added to this chart yet, the good news to report is the last three days are below the extrapolated trend line. That means the spread seems to be slowing down a bit. Hopefully this trend continues.
Regional Numbers
| Total Cases | Total Tested | Deaths | Percent-positive | Mortality Rate | |
| Mississippi | 758 | N/A | 14 | N/A | 1.85% |
| Louisiana | 3540 | 24939 | 151 | 14.19% | 4.27% |
| Alabama | 830 | 4755 | 4 | 17.46% | 0.48% |
| Tennessee | 1537 | 20574 | 7 | 7.47% | 0.46% |
| Arkansas | 449 | 3536 | 6 | 12.70% | 1.34% |
| Total | 7114 | 53804 | 182 | 13.22% | 2.56% |
A few states in the region do release the number of hospitalized people due to COVID-19. Those numbers are as follows:
Mississippi: 173 (+19)
Louisiana: 1,127 (+200)
Alabama: Not given
Tennessee: 133 (+15)
Arkansas: Not given
Making Estimates from past research
I talked about research from the Cruise Ships that may be relevant to estimating the number of cases without testing everyone (since that isn’t a feasible option). Plus, this type of estimate would make a good “first guess” at the number of asymptomatic people (the people who don’t feel sick, but are still infected), too.
This type of estimating isn’t perfect. In fact, it is far from it. And it is just an estimate. But based on the past research, it is at least a start.
| Estimated Symptomatic | Estimated Asymptomatic | Estimated total | |
| Mississippi | 1156 | 254 | 1410 |
| Louisiana | 5399 | 1185 | 6584 |
| Alabama | 1266 | 278 | 1544 |
| Tennessee | 2344 | 515 | 2859 |
| Arkansas | 685 | 150 | 835 |
| Total | 10850 | 2382 | 13232 |
Direct from Doctors and Nurses Pt. 2
Most of the Doctors and nurses in this next part are from Oregon or Washington. Oregon seems like a reasonable analog to Mississippi. Both have roughly the same number of cases (758 vs 548) and deaths (13 each), and both states are next to states with much higher numbers.
Aleksandra Cherednichenko, like Liz Seely, has a Bachelors of Science in Nursing and is an RN. She works for two of the biggest healthcare systems in Oregon as a critical care nurse at Legacy Health and an Allergy and Immunology nurse at OHSU.
Before she started answering questions, Cherednichenko noted that she ended her shifts in the ICU at the end of February as the is “super pregnant” (her words, not mine) and did not want to put her body through the already-difficult 12+ hours shifts. She also said she was concerned about the use of PPE, too.
“My last shift in the ICU was appropriately staffed and I was there the 12.5 hours that I was suppose to be,” Cherednichenko said. “Talking with my ICU co-workers now, their hours also haven’t increased. We are seeing higher acuity of patients on the unit and in recent weeks have had positive COVID patients, but the hospital is well staffed for right now, and our management is preparing for a surge by cross-training ICU step down nurses to work in the ICU.”
Cherednichenko also said that the hospitals in Portland are rearranging schedules and staff to make certain that there won’t be a shortage of workers by ending all non-essentials procedures.
“I know everyone is [concerned] about not having enough ventilators,” she said. “And yes, that is a concern. What concerns me the most is not having enough qualified providers, nurses and respiratory therapists to run said ventilators. That machine isn’t going to save you if you have no one advocating on your behalf, adjusting its settings with intricate knowledge of critical care.”
She did say that walking into work during this pandemic left her more aware of the supplies available. She noted that washing her hands and not touching her face were huge – just like for everyone else. And she spent time making certain she was wearing the appropriate PPE around someone who is sneezing or coughing.
She would also double-check her sanitation steps and take more time to sanitize her work station, her patient’s room and any essential equipment. While working at the allergy clinic, she sees only a limited number of patients in individual rooms with no waiting area. And they test patients for COVID-19 24 hours prior to any visitation.
“I think it’s safe to say that there is a general feeling of unease and uncertainty,” she said.
Cherednichenko said she is taking extra steps to protect herself or her family from this virus.
“In the ICU we wear hospital issued scrubs, so I always bring a clean change of clothes with me,” she said. “I also have designated work shoes that never come home with me and always live in my hospital locker. I sanitize all my gear (like stethoscope, water bottle, and badge) and I wash my face and clean my glasses prior to walking out of the hospital. I do the same thing for my clinic shifts. I bring a change of clothes with me and change in the car. I then use antibacterial wipes to sanitize anything I take home. I know several of my coworkers in the ICU have made the decision to be away from their kids and spouses, either by sending kids to live with relatives, or living somewhere completely different all together.”
Cherednichenko is very concerned about the virus, both in general and in specifics.
“There are a lot of unknowns about it’s transmission and spread,” She said. “I read at least one or two new studies that come out per day. There isn’t a vaccine like with other viruses, and all we can offer for people who fall ill is supportive treatment.”
Supportive Treatment is something you are likely to hear about care given to improve the quality of life of patients who have a serious or life-threatening disease. According to cancer.gov, the goal of supportive care is to prevent or treat as early as possible the symptoms of a disease, side effects caused by treatment of a disease, and psychological, social, and spiritual problems related to a disease or its treatment.
Testing was another concern of Cherednichenko’s. A lot like other posts here discussing the virus, the ability to track the virus has been difficult due to the lack of testing. While research has allowed the ability to estimate total numbers, an estimation is just that, an estimation. Cherednichenko points out that without hard numbers, it become difficult to find a solution.
“If we don’t know how many people are active carriers in the community we can’t reliably say how well this virus transmits,” Cherednichenko said. “And we can’t really come up with strategies to contain it other than social distancing and quarantine.”
On the other side of the coin, and perhaps a bit more behind the scenes, so to speak, Cherednichenko said that the constant chance in procedure was disconcerting.
“Guidelines for healthcare providers in regards to our personal protective equipment seem to change daily,” she said. “First it was only droplet precautions for COVID patients, not it’s airborne precautions, then its droplet in this situation and airborne in all others. Our hospitals are attempting to adjust to these protocols however they can based on their PPE supply, patient volume and staff availability.”
As you can imagine, it can be quite stressful. But Cherednichenko’s points highlight that every next person can help. By practicing social distancing, washing hands, and making sure you’re not contracting nor spreading this virus, you can help to keep hospitals from being overrun with patients down the line.
“This country healthcare is a limited resource,” she said. “Even on a good day – without a virus that we don’t really understand – people don’t get equal access to healthcare. People in rural communities will suffer much more not because there will be more cases, but because a lot of rural hospitals [may have] had to close or cut down on staff, they might not even have an ICU at the hospital that is still available.”
In a normal worst-case-scenario, if you get sick and you’re far away from critical services, people can be transported to urban hospitals where they can get the care they need. Should this virus continue to spread, Cherednichenko said that’s not going to be happening as often – or at all – if city hospitals are overwhelmed, understaffed and are without resources. And the potential lack of those resources could have deadly consequences.
“They will die not because they are deathly sick, they will die because there are not enough resources to treat them,” Cherednichenko said. “So I would say to those who are skeptical about this virus, think about it like a heart attack, you might experience one, you might not, but you should do things in your everyday life to try and prevent one, because you might not get the treatment that you need because there won’t be enough doctors, nurses, hospital beds and drugs available.”
Things you should be doing now
I know this can all seem overwhelming at times. The sheer amount of information being kicked out by every media outlets is like an avalanche.
So, here are some things: Stay home if you can! Gotta work? That’s understandable. Need food? Sure, head to the store. But try to skip any “for fun” activities in public where you would be interacting with others or in a place with multiple other people.
Some CDC’s guidance:
— Know where to get your local / state-level information
For Mississippi: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html
For Louisiana: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/
For Alabama: http://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/infectiousdiseases/2019-coronavirus.html
If you live in a state outside of the region, head to google and type in, “dept of health” followed by whatever state you live. Google should take you to that state’s department of health and on the main page, most states have a link to an update on the Coronavirus.
— Know the Symptoms
Look for things like a fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath. But also know when it may become an emergency. It becomes an emergency when you have difficulty breathing, a persistent pain or pressure in the chest, you develop general confusion, and if you develop bluish lips or face. Also recognize that body aches, weak stomach, nasal congestion, a sore throat, and other symptoms of the regular flu are not the same as the symptoms with Coronavirus.
— Stay home when you are sick
Any kind of sick. If you feel like you may have Coronavirus, call your health care provider’s office in advance of a visit. If you have any sickness, the CDC recommends to limit movement in the community, limit visitors, and practice good social distancing.
— Know if you are at a higher risk
Know what additional measures those at higher risk and who are vulnerable should take. Those at higher risk include older adults (over 60), people who have serious chronic medical conditions (like heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). Some research has indicated that people with asthma may also be included in the higher risk category.
— Take steps to mitigate your infection
The CDC recommends to “Implement steps to prevent illness” by washing high-traffic areas more often, washing hands with soap and water and if someone is sick, to isolate the sick person into a low-traffic area of the home.
— Create a Household Plan
Create a household plan of action in case of illness in the household or disruption of daily activities due to COVID-19 in the community.
Love this reunion. Thinking of you, Aleks, and thank you for this, Nick.