It looks like another round of severe thunderstorms are headed toward the souther Ohio River Valley, parts of Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama.
Scenario
As a cold front associated with an area of low pressure swings through the Ohio, Tennessee, Kentucky area the threat for severe weather is possible.
The bulk of the severe weather potential will be from Lexington, Kentucky to Nashville, Tennessee south to Birmingham, Alabama and points to the east. This does include Knoxville and Chattanooga, Tennessee.
The farther south you travel the better the chances to see severe weather
As it looks right now, this will be an afternoon and evening event with only a few storms lingering into the overnight hours with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail.
A Quick Breakdown
While this is a relatively classic severe weather scenario for Kentucky and Tennessee, right now it seems as though low level moisture will be the limiting factor. Computer weather models continue to suggest dewpoint levels between the low 50s and the low 60s across much of the area.
yellow = 500 // red = 1000
But that doesn’t mean you can let your guard down. Often times in early spring higher dewpoint values are not as necessary to promote severe weather activity.
Instead, during the winter and early spring Shear values and cold air / warm air advection are equally as important.
Right now, computer weather models suggest bulk shear values in the 25 to 40kts range and CAPE values between 500 and 1,000 J/kg – both indicators that severe weather is still a possibility.
Given the shear velocities and CAPE values with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, A long with other variables, the main threats will be large hail and damaging winds for Kentucky and Tennessee. The farther south the go, the higher the chances for more organized severe weather development.
