Get the umbrella ready, things are about to get soggy. The setup that gave Kansas nearly 900-percent of its average rainfall is shifting – so to speak – south and moving into parts of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.
That is a broad generalization, but rain chances are increasing over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.
For today, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible almost everywhere across the area. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Current computer weather models suggest between 600 J/kg and 1,200 J/kg of CAPE this afternoon with Bulk Shear between 20kts and 30kts. This should be enough juice to get larger hail and strong downburst winds. Given outflow boundaries from some of the storms in the southeastern section of the Texas panhandle, we could see a brief spin-up of a weak tornado est of a line from Guymon, Oklahoma to Memphis, Texas.
That said, a main bulk of the severe action will be on a line from Elkhart, Kansas to Silverton, Texas. In fact, it looks like the greatest threat is north of a line from Liberal, Kansas to Lipscomb, Texas. And while the main threats will be high wind and hail, an isolated tornado is also a possibility north of the line from Liberal to Lipscomb, as well.
Look for storm initiation between 2pm and 4pm this afternoon. Storms will begin to reach severe criteria between 3pm and 6pm. These storms – given the atmospheric setup – will have the potential to remain severe through 9pm.
Tuesday it’s another round of rain chances. Though on Tuesday, the coverage area and storm initiation will be determined by convection on Monday.
Generally speaking, storms will be possible west of a line from Elkhart, Kansas to Hart, Texas. The atmosphere will be slightly more conducive to severe weather development, Tuesday. Right now, computer weather models are suggesting CAPE values between 600 J/kg and 1,500 J/kg with bulk shear between 25kts and 35kts.
The greatest threat for severe weather is currently looking like northeast of a line from Goodwell, Oklahoma to Wheeler, Texas.
As a frontal boundary moves closer to the area late Tuesday and into Wednesday a cooldown is projected fro Wednesday and Thursday with continued rain chances.
While the severe weather setup isn’t exactly perfect, there will be more chances for storm development both days. Between a 30- and 60-percent chance for rain both days across the high plains.
As the front pushes through and high pressure begins to build back into the area, a northwest flow will develop offering more rain chances on Friday before they come to an end Saturday evening.
Some of the computer weather models are suggesting a “soaker” of sorts. The GFS projects nearly 2.5″ of rain by the time it is all said and done in some areas.
