While chatting about weather (that’s what we weather dudes do) earlier with Brandon Black, a fantastic meteorologist for NWS Mobile, he was mentioning that that the models for today didn’t handle temperatures or dewpoints well and that he was getting a bit more concerned about the potentials for severe weather overnight given that.
A great observation on his part. Today was a lot drier than anticipated. We didn’t get as many storms out intot he Gulf either. That means the southerly flow has been pumping Gulf of MExico warmth and humidity across the region all day.
And tonight, another little system is set to come zipping through.
As always, when there is a risk for severe weather, remember that this isn’t an “Everyone” problem. Some people will see rough weather, but the roughest of the rough will only be a select few spots.
WHO WILL SEE WHAT?
EVERYONE: A brief shot of heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 40mph
MOST PEOPLE: Heavy rain, a lot of lightning, wind gusts up to 45mph
SOME SPOTS: Heavy rain, a lot of lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, some small hail
FEW PLACES: Heavy rain, a lot of lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph and a tornado
TIMELINE
Right now, this looks like a 2AM – 6AM problem. This may leak into the 7A and 8A hours, too, if you live across far southeastern Mississippi and into Alabama.
It looks like between about 11p and 3a we may have a few storms fire up ahead of the line that is set to move through, so we may have a few sneaky storms try to strengthen past severe limits before we get into the main line, too.
One thing you’ll see on those maps is the timeline is a little different than I’m suggesting. I have a feeling things are going to be moving a bit quicker than the model guidance suggests, mainly because for the last few days everything has been moving faster than the models show.
Here is a general overview of how things should break down…
WESTERN COUNTIES — A line of storms passes through between about 12a and 3a with a round of heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters and the chance for a few tornadoes.
CENTRAL COUNTIES — A few isolated storms may develop ahead of the line of storms between 11p and 2a, these storms would likely have heavy rain, gusty wind and small hail. The tornado threat would likely be limited at that time. Then, a line of storms passes through between about 3a and 6a with a round of heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters and the chance for a few tornadoes.
EASTERN COUNTIES — A few isolated storms may develop ahead of the line of storms between 1a and 4a, these storms would likely have heavy rain, gusty wind and small hail. The tornado threat would likely be limited at that time. Then, a line of storms passes through between about 5a and 8a with a round of heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters and the chance for a few tornadoes.
THE TORNADO THREAT
I want to take a second to highlight the risk for a few tornadoes because after looking things over I think there is a chance that we see multiple tornado warnings overnight. That doesn’t mean a ton of tornadoes, but looking at the hodographs from multiple soundings pulled along the line of storms from teh HRRR model, they all show a very favorable wind profile for producing tornadoes in our area.
The only thing that is keeping tornadoes from being more widespread is the lack of instability shown in the model guidance. And instability is the one thing that has been increasing in the same models for the last few hours.
So we have a situation where models are suggesting a more favorable environment late tonight and into tomorrow morning for tornadoes.
Then you look at the Updraft Helicity Streaks. Recall that this is when we as the computer to identify where it things the strongest storms will be.
Any time we see a swatch of greys and blues like that, it is a good indicator that there is – at least some – support for multiple storms that could produce tornadoes.
Before you get too worried (and I know there are some out there!) these are not the “neighborhood flattening” tornadoes. A tornado is a tornado, yes. But, EF-3 and EF-4s are not likely tonight and an EF-5 is just out of the question.
But EF-0s and EF-1s are definitely possible. These tend to cause damage to homes and trees, but if you take the appropriate steps to protect yourself are very, very survivable.
I think we can’t rule out an EF-2 tonight, but that would need some very specific things to “Go right” for that to happen.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Between about 11p tonight and 7a tomorrow morning, a line of storms will press through the area. This line of storms will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up the size of quarters, and the potential to produce a few tornadoes.
Not everyone will get the worst of the worst! But these things are possible, so make sure you make some preparations before going to bed tonight. Have your NOAA WEather Radio turned on and have an app on your phone (like mine!) that can alert you when storms are approaching and when the NWS issues any warnings for your area.
