A few changes to the forecast tonight. And none of them are “Good” changes. The general forecast is still pretty straight-forward. From what I’ve seen tonight, I expect we will be waking up tomorrow morning to a Moderate Risk from the SPC across a small chunk of southern Mississippi and lower Alabama.
For now, though, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather north and an Enhanced Risk for south for Monday night through Tuesday morning. The Weather Prediction Center shows a Slight Risk across much of the region and a Moderate Risk for flash flooding specifically for southern Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana during the window between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning.
So the WPC did some trimming already. The SPC will likely wait till overnight or tomorrow morning.
Either way, it will be stormy with severe weather possible along with the potential for flash flooding.
No real change here: Generally, the rain starts Monday afternoon, the storms starts Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, and things ease up by Tuesday in the pre-dawn hours.Some storms overnight could be severe with the potential for a lot of lightning, very heavy rain, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters and the potential for a few tornadoes across the region. There will be some sort of flooding for almost everyone (from as little as big puddles to as much as swollen creeks and potential water near homes).
There is a pretty good chance that if you live in our general forecasting area you will be under some type of warning at some point. And there will likely be a Tornado Watch and a Flash Flood Watch issued by the NWS Monday afternoon or evening that lasts until early Tuesday morning.
All the while it will be windy. Not thunderstorm wind. but regular wind. Sustained wind between 25mph and 4mph will be possible with gusts up to 50mph at times. Again, not in the storms, just ‘because’
The specifics of this forecast have changed.
Teh blob in the Gulf is looking less blob-like the closer we get and, instead, is looking like the leading edge to a secondary push of warmer air set to invade the area. There is still come quesito about (A) how far north this warm air goes and (B) how warm the air is to begin with, but there is enough data to support an increased concern from both the SPC and local NWS offices.
For example, the Mobile/Pensacola NWS put out a forecast discussion that indicates a significant severe thunderstorm threat emerging, with high-resolution guidance showing increasing instability and shear. The environment is trending toward “extreme” conditions, with 1000-2000 J/KG of MLCape expected as far north as the highway 84 corridor. The shear, characterized by an 80 knot LLJ, is exceptionally high, with 0-1 KM SRH values around 500 to 600 m2/s2. Two rounds of severe weather are anticipated, with the potential for damaging winds, tornadoes, and strong QLCS tornadoes (EF-2+). The severity of the event is emphasized, urging people to stay updated and have battery-operated warning systems ready.
The Storm Prediction Center echoed this sentiment saying a convective line along the cold front is expected to intensify in a moist and buoyant air mass with strong low-level flow. This line will evolve from a parallel stratiform structure to an organized leading-line with trailing stratiform. The presence of robust low-level kinematics, indicated by 50-60 kt winds just above the surface and over 500 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggests a potential for both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes.
Translation: If things shake out as shown in the model guidance, be prepared for widespread storms and the potential for a few long-track strong tornadoes.
But there is no guarantee this happens like the model guidance is showing, so let’s take a peek at the data….
THE QUICK DETAILS
It now looks like the high clouds may role in during the day, but the rain may hold off until after 4pm. That may allow for a bit more heating than originally anticipated from just fewer clouds and more sun.
I don’t think there was much of a change to when the real severe weather threat is, though. The real threat for severe weather likely doesn’t arrive until we get into the late evening and overnight hours as a bit of a secondary push of warmer air, as well as some heavier rain, pushes through the area around 7pm and pushes all the way through by 11pm. Once that happens, depending on your location, you will have an increased risk for severe weather.
On top of that, those showers and thunderstorms that move through wer will also have the risk for flooding. some area will receive up to 6″ of rain by this point. In particular places where showers train and drop repeated rounds of heavy rain. Some model guidance shows a stripe across parts of the area that could see up to 9″ of rainfall. Other models suggest only up to 6″ of rain.
No model guidance shows less than 2″ of rain generally across the area and all model guidance shows at least one stripe of 5″ of rain somewhere across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Going back to the severe weather risk, the evening Updraft Helicity Streaks map below shows a much more robust spread of streaks than earlier today.
Recall that the UH Streaks map is when we ask the computer to find where it thinks the strongest and most organized storms will be. It does this by using an algorithm to find where, in the data, the data supports rotating updrafts. Also known as spinny storms. And the map below shows a pretty wide spread of spinny storms.
Earlier today, there were questions about if any of these stronger storms would be surface-based given the temperatures. But the evening data is suggesting that the surface-based storms may be more widespread and farther north.
Keep in mind with this map that the specific placement of the coloring isn’t as important as how much coloring you see on the map. The computer isn’t great run-to-run at ID’ing where these storms will be, but it is good at picking out if there will be or will not be stronger storms.
So if you see a ton of coloring in an area (lower Alabama, for instance) that is a good indicator to monitor that area – generally – for stronger storms. Same goes with parts of southern and southwestern Mississippi.
That blob mentioned earlier in the day is no longer showing up in the model guidance.
That blob was originally going to help cut off the flow of rich, warm, and humid Gulf of Mexico air into the area. With it no longer showing up, it means we are free-flowing that air northward.
That increases the risk for severe weather.
The one bit of good news is that the data supports this stuff moving a bit quicker.
The onset of severe storms starts, generally, between 6p and 9p and then clearest east by 5a for most folks.
COUNTY-BY-COUNTY BREAKDOWN
As always, these county-by-county breakdowns for a timeline for potential impacts may change by an hour or two. So please make sure that you are looking at the most recent forecast on this site when referencing these. Feel free to tap/click over to the homepage to see if there has been an update this this was posted.
I-20 CORRIDOR
COPIAH COUNTY
12p — 4p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
5p — 9p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
10p — 2a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
3a — 7a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
RANKIN COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
SIMPSON COUNTY
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
SCOTT COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
SMITH COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
NEWTON COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
JASPER COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches..
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
LAUDERDALE COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
CLARKE COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
LINCOLN COUNTY
12p — 4p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
5p — 9p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
10p — 2a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
3a — 7a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
LAWRENCE COUNTY
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
COVINGTON COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be between 1-3 inches..
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado.. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
JONES COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
WAYNE COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR
PIKE COUNTY
12p — 4p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
5p — 9p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
10p — 2a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
3a — 7a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
WALTHALL COUNTY
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
MARION COUNTY
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
LAMAR COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to up to 1 inch.
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
FORREST COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to up to 1 inch.
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
PERRY COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to up to 1 inch.
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
GREENE COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
HIGHWAY 26 CORRIDOR
PEARL RIVER COUNTY
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
STONE COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
GEORGE COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
I-10 CORRIDOR
HANCOCK COUNTY
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
HARRISON COUNTY
2p — 6p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
7p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
12a — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
5a — 9a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
JACKSON COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
LOUISIANA PARISHES
ST. HELENA PARISH
12p — 4p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
5p — 9p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
10p — 2a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
3a — 7a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
LIVINGSTON PARISH
12p — 4p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
5p — 9p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
10p — 2a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
3a — 7a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
TANGIPAHOA PARISH
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
ST. TAMMANY PARISH
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 2-4 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
WASHINGTON PARISH
1p — 5p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
6p — 10p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
11p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
4a — 8a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
ALABAMA COUNTIES
SUMTER COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
CHOCTAW COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches..
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
WASHINGTON COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
MOBILE COUNTY
3p — 7p – There may not be much out there, but a few isolated storms may offer brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals are estimated to be up to 1 inch.
8p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a brief and weak tornado. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
1a — 5a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a tornado up to EF-3 in strength is possible. Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 1-3 inches.
6a — 10a – Things will be winding down with lingering showers and a few storms. Minimal additional rainfall anticipated.
THE BOTTOM LINE
It is going to be a stormy afternoon, evening and overnight Monday and into Tuesday. The closer you are to the coast, the more stormy it will be. The farther north of I-20 you go the less stormy it will be.
There is the chance for severe weather, including wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters and tornadoes up to EF-3 in strength. Rainfall may be intense at times and flooding is a concern. Some spots may receive up to 9″ of rain. The timeline for these threats will depend on your location.
Have a plan for what you would do if a warning – any warning – is issued for your area. And know that the actions you take when a Tornado Warning is issued is different than a Flash Flood Warning. That sounds silly to read for some of you who have lived here your whole life, but if you’re new to the area make sure you know what to do when a warning is issued.
I’ll post updates to this forecast as new data becomes available.
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