The last 12 hours of model guidance have seen a reasonable increase in pre-frontal changes. The gap in higher dewpoint values out in the Gulf has shrunk down to almost nothing in the Gulf, and instead has repositioned itself across parts of inland Louisiana (yellow dashed circle below). this shift – and shrink – has some meaningful implications tot eh eventual severe weather threat across Louisiana and Mississippi. .
In particular it changes the overall setup to be more favorable for brief and weak tornadoes to develop within the narrow avenue of space just ahead of the cold front. There won’t be a wide coverage of storms in that avenue along the front, but where the storms exist, there will be a higher risk for severe weather and a brief tornado.
And of course, that avenue will move right along witht he cold front as it lifts to the east-northeast across the region.
A good example of the changes are shown in the Skew-Ts across central Louisiana (below). In the five main parameters for tornado development, all of those parameters have become more faovrable for tornadic development during the last 6 and 12 hours of model data.
This doesn’t mean that there will definitely be more severe weather or definitely be tornadoes. Instead, this shows that the background environment will be more favorable, so each storm will simply need to be monitored a bit closer for the development of severe weather.
TIMELINE
This is still looking like a Saturday midday / afternoon / evening event. So, if you have outdoor plans between 11a and 7p on Saturday you may want to make sure you have a backup plan.
THREATS
Brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, small hail and the potential for brief and weak tornadoes
