RIGHT NOW
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT
LOCATION…26.9N 91.7W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES
OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 91.7 West. Zeta is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will then move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next few hours, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 26.9N 91.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 30.1N 89.9W 80 KT 90 MPH…INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 35.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 39.1N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1200Z 41.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 31/0000Z…DISSIPATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL…6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River…5-8 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne…5-7 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA…4-6 ft
Mobile Bay…4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border…3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay…2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River includingVermilion Bay…1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today.
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.
RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.
strong>KEY MESSAGES
1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning later today, with the highest inundation occurring between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. Overtopping of local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts.
3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta’s fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.
4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Zeta has a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite images, and the eye has been fairly well-defined. Strong upper-level outflow is evident over the northern semicircle of the hurricane. Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the system had continued to strengthen over the past few hours. Peak 700-mb flight level winds were 89 kt, which equates to a maximum surface wind of about 80 kt, and The central pressure has fallen to 976 mb. Zeta still has a few hours to intensify before it begins to move over the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, and southwesterly shear is likely to increase by the time the center reaches the coast. Even if a little weakening begins later today, however, Zeta should maintain hurricane strength through landfall. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. In 36 hours or so, the global models clearly depict the system as a frontal wave approaching the United States east coast so the official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal zone.
The hurricane has turned northward and is now moving at around 010/16 kt. A strong 500-mb trough moving into Texas will continue to move eastward during the next 36-48 hours. The flow ahead of this trough will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast in 6-12 hours. On Thursday, the cyclone will then move northeastward on the eastside of the trough, at an even faster pace, over the southeastern United States. By early Friday, the system should move east-northeastward in the westerlies and into the western Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and generally follows the dynamical model consensus.
Given Zeta’s acceleration near and after landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. this evening and early Thursday.
