There is a bit too much info to pack into a facebook post, and my latest tweet leaves some room for elaboration… so I figured a blog update would have to suffice.
There is still a chance for severe storms tonight. The risk for severe weather hasn’t increased or decreased. But we are getting a better idea about how things will shake out now that the storms have started to actually develop across parts of Louisiana.
From the SPC
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch across sections of Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.
The thought right now is that some sort of watch will be possible across parts of the rest of southern Mississippi in the coming hours. The watch – be it Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm – will likely last through about 4am or 6am once issued.
The threat for tornadoes is still on the low side for South Mississippi, but a Tornado Watch may still be issued. Please don’t let a Tornado Watch give you the false sense that tornadoes are suddenly “more likely” than earlier forecasts because a watch has been issued.
There is – and will continue to be – a low-end risk for a brief tornado here or there tonight, but the threat for long-track, strong, and devastating tornadoes is very low.
Instead, the true threat is for heavy rain and very gusty wind. Wind gusts of 30-70mph will be possible in every single rain shower that develops tonight. You won’t even need a thunderstorm to develop near you to get some pretty gusty wind. Even just a regular rain shower will mix down enough wind to blow around the trees pretty good.
In the strongest storms, wind gusts of 50mph to 70mph will be possible. So please keep an eye on trees around your house and if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued for your area, seek shelter in the interior section of your home – away from windows and exterior walls – if possible.
From the WPC
The WPC, Weather Prediction Center, is currently monitoring the region for the threat for flash flooding.
Right now, the WPC is concerned that “training” and multiple rounds of storms may allow for flash flooding to occur in a few spots through 3am. Storms will be very proficient rain producers tonight and may drop up to 4″ of rain in some spots.
So far, it looks like the heaviest rain and highest totals will be across parts of Louisiana, however radar trends will need to be monitored overnight.
So far, even with multiple rounds of storms possible, it does appear that these storms are ‘in a bit of a hurry’ and won’t be sticking around all night. That should mitigate the threat for widespread flooding. It will also curb the threat for localized devastating flood (like Petal experienced in 2018).
But water may back up in the ditches, ponding may occur in your yard, and the usual places that tend to see flooding will likely see flooding tonight according to the latest radar trends and model guidance.
The Bottom Line
Showers will continue to pass through the area all night long, but the threat for severe weather won’t likely ramp up until after 11pm and it will linger around through – at least – 3am.
The main concern tonight is heavy rain, localized flooding, damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, and the potential for a brief tornado. There is also the chance to see some small hail.
Once this passes through, things will cool down drastically. The wind will likely continue to blow between 10mph and 20mph all night long. If you have wind chmes, they will be getting a workout.
From Earlier
Here is a look at the Detailed Forecast from earlier today I posted on Youtube and on the WDAM Weather app.
