I want to start off by saying: Today is not a slam dunk event. A lot of folks are posting about a severe weather outbreak, mega tornado outbreak, super extreme severe weather apocolypsemaggedon of doom.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined part of the area with a Moderate Risk for severe weather. That is a “4” on the 1-to-5 scale where a “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather.
It may be a rough day. There is no arguing there.
But this is far from a guarantee. Particularly with what happened yesterday across coastal Mississippi and Lower Alabama — the atmosphere has been pretty well worked over down there.
On top of that, We may have two things working in our favor to put a lid on how rough the weather may get…
1. A blob.
2. Limited vertical motion
THE BLOB
Long time readers and followers of my forecasts may recall this very Scientific term. “The blob” is what I call a cluster of storms off the coast and out into the Gulf that tend to rob the lower levels of warmth and moisture.
This morning, we have a thin – but very there – blob of storms off the coast and out into the Gulf. It is circled in the above image. The red arrows are the warm, humid Gulf air that the severe weather will need to sustain itself later today. But, for the moment, it is being cut off across parts of the area by the blob.
If the blob remains there today, it may eat up all of the “food” some of our storms need to “eat” in order to live. This would really limit the severity of storms this afternoon and evening. It would still rain and thunder, but the risk for the big, strong tornadoes this afternoon ahead of the cold front and line of storms overnight would be much lower.
LIMITED VERTICAL MOTION
This one is a bit more Sciency. Often times during severe weather situations I will talk about Instability, shear, hodographs, helicity, updrafts, and downdrafts.
I don’t often talk about vertical velocity. Now, I do when it snows! But for severe weather, we often have plenty of that.
This time, we may not. And it is for a few different reasons. None of them are “big” reasons, They are all a bit subtle. But there is – I believe – a reasonably chance that some of these subtle reasons may add up to a more limited risk for severe weather than normal.
The graphic below is a Skew-T. The circled areas are the things I would normally look at to ID a threat for severe weather.
But in this case, Im looking at the white boxed area that I kind of popped out and made bigger on the left side. See the little blue bars that are on the left side of the purple vertical line? That is telling us meteorologists that there is sinking air.
Normally, we would want to see the lines on the other side and in pink. Like this:
That image above is from when the line of storms moves through later in the evening and overnight.
But even that one, all of the “pink stuff” is between 850 and 500 and none of it is closer to the ground – which would limit the risk for tornadoes.
It’s subtle, but important.
So, while I do think today will feature severe storms, I also think many folks will be sitting around waiting until later tonight before it ever arrives. And for some folks, you may not see “technically” severe weather at all. Others have a chance to see a long-track tornado. So the spread of potential realities today is quite wide.
Below is the county-by-county breakdown. Keep in mind the forecast for each county includes the “reasonable worst case scenario” for each county. Like always, severe weather is not ubiquitous. Just because it didn’t tornado at your house doesn’t mean someone on the other side of the county was as lucky. So I have to provide a forecast to help everyone prepare.
You guys probably remember my “Everyone to a few folks list. And for today, it looks like this:
EVERYONE:
Brief heavy rain at times, one round of some lightning, and a few wind gusts up to 40mph as the line of storms moves through the area between about 8p and 1a tonight.
MOST PEOPLE:
A few rounds of heavy rain, a few rounds of lightning, and a few rounds of wind gusts up to 50mph during the storms as the line moves through the area between about 8p and 1a tonight.
MANY SPOTS:
A few rounds of heavy rain, a few rounds of lightning, some small hail, and multiple rounds of wind gusts up to 55mph during the storms as the line moves through the area between about 8p and 1a tonight.
SOME PLACES:
Multiple rounds of storms during both the afternoon and evening. With heavy rain, frequent lightning during the storms, some hail up to the size of quarters, and multiple rounds of wind gusts up to 65mph, a tornado warning or two.
A FEW FOLKS:
Multiple rounds of storms during both the afternoon and evening. With heavy rain, frequent lightning during the storms, some hail up to the size of quarters, and multiple rounds of wind gusts up to 65mph, and a strong tornado (up to EF4 in strength)
COUNTY-BY-COUNTY BREAKDOWN
Near I-20
Hinds County
Now – 1p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
2p – 6p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
7p – 11p – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Copiah County
Now – 1p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
2p – 6p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
7p – 11p – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Rankin County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Simpson County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Scott County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Smith County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Newton County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Jasper County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Lauderdale County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Clarke County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
HWY 84 Corridor
Lincoln County
Now – 1p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
2p – 6p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
7p – 11p – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Lawrence County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Jeff Davis County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Covington County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Jones County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Wayne County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
HWY 98 Corridor
Pike County
Now – 1p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
2p – 6p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
7p – 11p – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Walthall County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Marion County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Lamar County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Forrest County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Perry County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Greene County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
HWY 26 Corridor
Pearl River County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Stone County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
George County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Coastal Mississippi
Hancock County
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF2 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF3 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF2 in strength.
Harrison County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF2 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF3 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF2 in strength.
Jackson County
Now – 3p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
4p – 8p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF2 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF3 in strength.
9p – 1a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF2 in strength.
Southeastern Louisiana
St. Helena Parish
Now – 1p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
2p – 6p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
7p – 11p – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Livington Parish
Now – 1p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
2p – 6p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
7p – 11p – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Tangipahoa Parish
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Washington Parish
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
St. Tammany Parish
Now – 2p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
3p – 7p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
8p – 12a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Alabama Counties
Sumter County
Now – 4p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
5p – 9p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
10p – 2a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Choctaw County
Now – 4p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
5p – 9p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
10p – 2a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Washington County
Now – 4p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
5p – 9p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
10p – 2a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
Mobile County
Now – 4p – Isolated showers and storms will be possible as warm air surges northward. Any storms that develop will have brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 50mph, and small hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but that isn’t the main concern during this time period.
5p – 9p – Scattered storms likely. Clusters of storms and isolated supercells will be possible during this time period. These storms will dot the landscape, but not everyone will see these storms.
Clustered storms will potentially produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters and may produce a tornado – up to EF3 in strength.
Isolated supercells will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and will have the ability to produce a strong tornado, up to EF4 in strength.
10p – 2a – A line of storms will move through the area. The line of storms will have the potential to produce heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters. Tornadoes will also be possible. Up to EF3 in strength.
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