There wasn’t much of a change between the overnight and mid morning data. That is good news. It means the model guidance is finally getting a good handle on things. Or it gave up. Ha! I’m kidding, of course.
The SPC forecast hasn’t changed much, either, so it does look like things are getting a bit more certain.
From the SPC
The Storm Prediction Center only made very small changes to the Severe Weather Risk.
Here is the latest discussion:
That last line is important. The overall tornado threat to the east (across Mississippi and Alabama) may be tempered inland by some not-as-favorable parameters.
The Bottom Line
Timeline
Not much has changed here, either. But I still think the two hours of wiggle room on each end of the timeline below is needed.
Keep in mind, due to the nature of this event, the timeline does not indicate how long it will be raining. Instead it indicates the timeline for the highest risk for the threat for severe weather.
10a – 2p: Mainly a Texas and Louisiana issue
2p – 6p: Eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi
6p – 10p: Mainly southern Mississippi
10p – 2a: Southern Mississippi and western Alabama
2a – 6a: Mainly in Alabama and the Florida panhandle
Expectations
–- Heavy rain and gusty wind will accompany nearly every rain shower and thunderstorm. Wind will be sustained at greater than 10mph in general through the afternoon. Wind gusts will exceed 30mph in most rain showers and would be up to 75mph in the strongest thunderstorms.
— There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.
–- Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 12 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down.
–- Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.
Threats
The main concerns with storms today will include…
- Heavy rain
- Localized flash flooding
- Frequent lightning
- Wind gusts up to 75mph
- Hail up the size of quarters
- A few tornadoes
Tornado potential
The tornado threat will likely be confined – mostly – to Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. The SPC has placed that are under a 10-percent tornado risk. The 5-percent risk stretches into Alabama.
The above map shows where the strongest storms of the day after looking at the morning guidance. This doesn’t necessarily mean those areas will see a tornado, but if there is going to be one, most likely it will be with the strongest storms.
So if you live inside one of those circled areas – or near one – keep an extra close eye to the sky.
While the rest of southern Mississippi and Alabama remain in a 5-percent tornado risk area, as noted by the data above and the SPC discussion, the potential for tornadoes to develop is going to be conditional.
Another way to think about it is we have all the ingredients to make a tornado, the question is if all of those things can line up in the right place at the right time to make it happen. And that is something we can’t know.
MAN YOU TIMELINE IS WAY OFF I HOPE YOU KNOW. EVEN THE NWS IN JACKSON IS CALLING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BE IN THE PINE BELT FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING. YOU ARE CALLING FOR 4PM TIL 11 PM TONIGHT. YOU ARE WAY OFF MAN!!! WHERE DID YOU GET YOUR EDUCATION FROM? LOL
This is concerning your comment on your Facebook page about people expressing their opinions. First off you work for a company that provides a service I don’t think they’ll be liking you expressing your opinions so strongly like you did on Facebook that was very unprofessional. First of the kid that’s working in the morning has been working there for almost 6 years wearing the same sports coat that he Has outgrown. One of the things you are required to take when being a professional meteorologist are working in the world as a whole is to take professional dress 101. They teach you how to groom yourself and what kind of business Sports wear you need You look professional. So this poor guy you have on in the morning Looks sloppy while on the air. Yeah I need to at least donate him some fresh looking sports coats to make him look a little professional. And as far as the weather forecast you got it wrong dude.