2/15/23 6p Quick look at tomorrow’s severe weather threat for Southern MS/AL/LA region

The Storm Prediction Center has parts of the area under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather tomorrow. That is a “3” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most potent severe weather.

Notice the entire area is under a risk for severe weather.

The entire area. So if you’re asking, “what about where I live?” If you live in southeastern Louisiana, anywhere in Mississippi, and anywhere in Alabama… this includes you.

The severe weather will begin as early as 10a or 11a for some and linger around as late as 10p for others. The farther west you live the earlier things start and end. The farther east you live, the later things begin and the longer they will last into the night.

The main concerns include: Heavy rain, localized flash flooding, lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and a few tornadoes.

Here is a look at the storm timeline.

AGain, the earlier things start the earlier they will end. Also important that the potential for storms being “likely” doesn’t mean it will be raining the entire time. There will likely be breaks here and there, but there will be a good shot for storms during that time period.

Here is a look at the estimated radar from the HRRR computer weather model:

The highest threat for severe weather across the region tomorrow looks to be between 11a and 4p. The ‘highest threat’ doesn’t mean the ‘only threat’ though.

Notice to the west things peak earlier and quicker, while the potential rises slower in the east but hangs around a bit higher for a bit longer.

On the map, here is the area of highest concern tomorrow during the peak hours for severe storms. This is based on the Karrie Meter, the Updraft Helicity Streaks, and a few other atmospheric parameters.

If you live in or near the circled area on the map above, know that your risk for severe weather – including tornadoes – is much higher than normal tomorrow – so please have a severe weather plan in place.

The Karrie Meter came back a bit higher this evening. At a 6.5 out of 10. And a TOR Lean above that number which means tornadoes are more likely tomorrow than a typical event.