Just a quick update on the severe weather threat for Wednesday and into Thursday: It may end up being pretty conditional.
The condition being, how far north does the warm Gulf of Mexico air make it?
We are already seeing the influence of it Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued by the NWS for many spots as warmer, humid air floods the region.
As we move through Wednesday and into Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center held the Slight Right for severe weather. That is a “2” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather.
Looking at the data from this afternoon / early evening, the Karrie Meter was about as close as you can get to being in complete agreement with the SPC. The SPC is at a “2” and the Karrie Meter is a 4.01.
Recall that the Karrie Meter is the local severe weather parameter I developed back in 2016 that is on a 1-to-10 scale. In order to compare the SPC Risk to the Karrie Meter, you just divide the Karrie Meter in half.
So it is a “2” to a “2.005” when compared. That is pretty close.
The Tornado Multiplier on the same graphic above looks back at history to determine if tornadoes are more likely or less likely to develop in the forecast environment. It basically takes the Karrie Meter and throws some extra numbers in the proverbial barrel.
In this case, when you look at the Karrie Meter to TOR ratio, any number greater than 1 is an increased risk for tornadoes. And since it is a ratio, technically, the scale is infinite.
The storm timeline above shows that organized, isolated storms may begin as early as 6p.
I may be a tad late with the forecast for this one, if I’m being honest. I would plan to *be* somewhere by 4p just to save you from being out driving in the riff-raff should it show up a tad earlier than shown in the data.
Once it starts, the more robust storms and the higher likelihood of storms arrives starting between 8p and 9p and that should hold through about 3a the following morning. Storms will be moving from west to east, so the earlier it starts for you, the sooner it comes to an end.
And once the strongest of the storms start, the heaviest of the rain should show up and move out with about 90 minutes. So this shouldn’t be a very long duration rainfall event.
And once it is done by around 4a, things start to clear out and we look good through the weekend.
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