While there are a handful of showers and storms drifting across the landscape of Louisiana and Mississippi, the current severe weather threat is low.
It will be increasing in teh coming hours, though. During the last few hours, the Storm Prediction Center has been monitoring the severe weather potential.
While they have highlighted two areas locally that warrant extra attention, they mentioned, in both cases, that the severe weather threat was limited due to a lack of meaningful instability and enough low-level shear.
Places where things will be picking up soon is across northern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and west-central Mississippi.
Elsewhere, the threat will increase later as the system – the same one promoting the development of the current handful of storms – gets closer.
By 6p/7p tonight storms will begin to develop with deeper cores and will likely start to rotate a bit more and with a bit more depth in the mid and low levels. By 8p I think a few severe storms will be possible.
The HRRR model suggests a few clusters of storms. Some with rotating updrafts as indicated by the Updraft Helicity map below.
Looking at the Skew-T data from the HRRR, the data supports some pretty stout storms.
That sounding would give you a Karrie Meter of around a 3.37. But if you double the instability (an easy task if the point we grabbed the data from has been contaminated by local storms) you get a number closer to 4.5. And if you increase some of the other parameters by as little as 10-percent, you get a number closer to 5.25.
For those less familiar with the Karrie Meter scale, here is a look at it from the Easter Tornado outbreak back in 2020. It was about a 5.5 that day for roughly the same parts of South Mississippi.
This will likely be a short-lived event, though, with the first round of potentially severe storms moving through and out of the area by 11p. Then a line of less potent, but still potentially strong storms move through overnight.
We appreciate you taking your time to still keep our area informed.
I agree with the other viewer … THANK YOU for continuing to look after us even though you aren’t required to do so! SO much more accurate outlooks here than on our local TV station now. The amount of rain we have received and look to receive is what has me ‘concerned’.