Again, I want to point out that I’m not a doctor. Not a medical researcher. I will never claim to have any medical expertise outside of knowing when an NFL players has ‘messed up’ their knee after I see the replay 10 times.
However. I do know where to look for medical expertise. And I know how to track down medical journals. And I trust the observations of those trained to understand the human body and its responses.
And I trust the medical experts just like a trust a mechanic with a car or a pilot to fly a plane.
From the Center for Disease Control
There have now been two confirmed deaths from the Coronavirus. The CDC continues to monitor the situation and post updates on their website daily. Here is a quick snippet from a press release yesterday:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and public health officials in the state of Washington have reported three hospitalized patients who have tested presumptive-positive for the virus that causes COVID-19, including one patient who died.
The CDC notes that this now brings the total number of infected Americans to 22 on Friday. The World Health Organization is reporting that there are 35 Americans infected.
Either way, there are currently about 325,000,000 people in the United States. So the number of current infections is very, very, very low.
There were reports from multiple news agencies that the number is now higher, however, I will refrain from citing another news outlet for a number. I will only provide numbers from the CDC or WHO.
What is the coronavirus
The coronavirus is like every other flu virus that can infect humans in many ways, but not every way. The main difference is it is in the same realm as the SARS and MERS viruses that affected Asia and the Middle east. Research done on the virus pulled from the first few patients to contract the disease showed a more than 80-percent match with SARS in some areas and an almost 95-percent match in others.
Researchers wrote in a recent scientific paper that SARS and Coronavirus are thus related. The authors even noted that the comparability would “[imply] the two belong to same species.”
And according to medical researchers, it was believed that those diseases and this new Coronavirus, came from bats.
But those same researchers noted there were a few things they didn’t know yet:
We don’t know the transmission routine of this virus among hosts yet. It seems the virus is becoming more transmissible between human-to-human. We should closely monitor if the virus continue evolving to become more virulent. Owing to shortage of specific treatment and considering the relatedness between SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV, some drugs and pre-clinical vaccine against SARS-CoV probably can be applied to this virus.
The difference in death-rate between Coronavirus and SARS/MERS
A recent paper, published last week, by Zunyou Wu and Jennifer M. McGoogan, highlight the difference.
A total of 8096 SARS cases and 774 deaths across 29 countries were reported for an overall CFR of 9.6%. MERS is still not contained and is thus far responsible for 2494 confirmed cases and 858 deaths across 27 countries for a CFR of 34.4%. Despite much higher CFRs for SARS and MERS, COVID-19 has led to more total deaths due to the large number of cases. As of the end of February 18, 2020, China has reported 72,528 confirmed cases (98.9% of the global total) and 1870 deaths (99.8% of the global total). This translates to a current crude CFR of 2.6%.
You can read the whole article here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
So, Coronavirus is 1/3rd as deadly as SARS. And Coronavirus is 1/13th as deadly as MERS. And, as one medical researcher put it on CNN the other day, as it evolves in the future, it is statistically more likely to become less deadly. Because the viruses that mutated to become more deadly will stay within the hosts that are dead, rather than continue to be passed along.
It is worth noting that – as of this writing – there have been two confirmed deaths in the United States. And, at last count, there were only 22 confirmed cases. That would mean a death rate, given the available numbers, of 10-percent. So it bears watching to see if the death-rate increases from what researchers have seen recently.
What does coronavirus do to people
The coronavirus is very contagious. And only causes a fever and cough. That may be the biggest concern for people. It seems innocuous until it is not. And it spreads quickly within an infected community.
Here is a snippet from a research paper from Ying Liu, Albert A Gayle, Annelies Wilder-Smith, and Joacim Rocklöv in the Journal of Travel Medicine:
[transmission] estimates for SARS have been reported to range between 2 and 5, which is within the range of the mean [transmission] for COVID-19 found in this review. Due to similarities of both pathogen and region of exposure, this is expected. On the other hand, despite the heightened public awareness and impressively strong interventional response, the COVID-19 is already more widespread than SARS, indicating it may be more transmissible
For the medical community, they are also focused on identifying the symptoms and how to resolve them.
Currently, the medical community says symptoms are fever and cough, “which frequently lead to lower respiratory tract disease with poor clinical outcomes” for people who are older or have pre-existing health conditions. And diagnosis can only be made based on the symptoms, the history of exposure, as well as chest imaging.
That means if you have a runny nose and headache, it is less likely to be coronavirus. If you have a stuffy nose and clogged up sinuses, it is less likely to be coronavirus.
And if you have not been to China or been exposed to someone who has been to China is it unlikely you have Coronavirus.
Is it spreading between humans and other animals
Right now, the medical research community thinks – like SARS – it started in bats and, perhaps, civets. But there was a paper that noted that other animals could be transmitters – but only if infected by another animal.
Yushun Wan, Jian Shang, Rachel Graham, Ralph S. Baric, and Fang Li wrote in the Journal of Virology:
Pigs, ferrets, cats and non-human primates contain largely favorable 2019-nCoV-contacting residues in their ACE2, and hence may serve as animal models or intermediate hosts for 2019-nCoV
But until an animal has been in contact with another animal with the Coronavirus, it is not going to carry the virus.
Are facemasks a good idea
Probably not. This is straight from the CDC:
CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19. You should only wear a mask if a healthcare professional recommends it. A facemask should be used by people who have COVID-19 and are showing symptoms. This is to protect others from the risk of getting infected. The use of facemasks also is crucial for health workers and other people who are taking care of someone infected with COVID-19 in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).
Things to do right now
A lot of the talk has been about if this virus may eventually become a pandemic. That does not change – in any way – what you need to be doing now.
Right now, simply keep tabs on the news with Coronavirus. Continue to wash your hands – like you would do to combat the spread of the common cold or flu – and avoid touching your face. If you know someone who has traveled to China, monitor them for symptoms. If you know someone who has traveled to an area where other people have traveled from China, monitor them for symptoms.
And again, medical professionals (that have researched this) found that death-rate of Coronavirus is around two- to three-percent. That is a lot higher than the common cold or the flu, yes. However, this virus isn’t as deadly (based on the research) as SARS or MERS.
The other thing to do is to keep this potential outbreak in perspective. While, yes it is dangerous to those infected, and yes there is the potential that it could spread to the United States, at this time the best thing to do is remain calm and do what you would normally do to fight against the regular flu.
And the regular flu, the one that floats around all year, has sent 21,000,000 people to the doctor and – according to the CDC – is responsible for up to 46,000 deaths.
The current official – straight from the CDC – Coronavirus numbers in the United States are 22 infected people.
This this really a big problem, or is everyone making too big of a deal?
I don’t have the answer to that – no one does. I think that saying “the media” is blowing this out of proportion is too short-sighted. I also think saying this is a super-big-really-bad deal is too much.
If it spreads quickly across this country like it has in other places, it will become a problem. A big one. If it is quarantined and the medical community does a good job at suppressing the risk, it won’t be a problem.
Only time will tell.
But it is important that you do what you can to protect yourself now, and keep up with the news.
Still want more into?
Check out this flyer from the CDC with information about Coronavirus.
