Another reminder that I am not a medical doctor. Nor am I a healthcare professional of any kind. My goal with these posts is to pass along relevant information from the medical community – direct from the source – with some translation into regular English.
A couple of notes before we begin
After reading medical journals and pulling information from the CDC, WHO and HHS as well as Johns Hopkins and the Mayo Clinic, here is some quick information that I want to help correct:
– Kids are not “immune” to Coronavirus, there are a handful of cases where children have contracted the virus
– Symptoms for adults with a good immune system may not be catastrophic, but the virus can still be passed along to others if said adult is carrying the virus
– The death rate for older adults – people 60 and older – is higher than any other age group (with all other factors being held equal)
Just a reminder that coronavirus can spread between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet) and through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest). And the CDC notes that some spread might be possible before people show symptoms but that is still something being investigated and researched.
From the CDC
In a briefing (you can listen below), the director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said that the public lab capacity has increased and 78 public health labs across the United States now have the capacity to test up to 75,000 people for COVID-19.
That may come as good news to a lot of people as, on Sunday, the number of reported cases to the CDC was 164. By Tuesday that number was up to 647. According to other counts, that number may be as high as 1,000.
Multiple states are now reporting cases to the CDC. And those states already reporting cases are reporting many, many more cases.
From Johns Hopkins
In a new research paper titled, “The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application” researchers from Johns Hopkins identified that the incubation period for Coronavirus is about five days.
The results of the research found that 5.1 days was the average time of incubation and around 97-percent of those who develop symptoms will do so within about 11 days. On top of that, researchers noted that only 101 out of every 10 000 cases will develop symptoms after 14 days.
The researchers noted that understanding the incubation period will help medical professionals prepare and react to the spread of the virus within the United States.
From the Mayo Clinic
The Mayo Clinic dropped two videos recently. One is a quick snapshot of Coronavirus:
The other featured a Q&A with a pediatric specialist. I know there are a lot of people out there with kids, or who may be pregnant that are probably concerned.
“We are still trying to figure out how this virus behaves in pregnant women,” Dr. Nipunie Rajapakse a pediatric infectious diseases specialist said. “But we do know pregnancy is a time of immune suppression.”
Rajapakse says that women who are pregnant should treat themselves as if they are apart of the “compromised immune system” population until the researchers learn more about the virus.
You can watch the entire Q&A here:
More from the CDC
The CDC hosted a telephone briefing on Tuesday to distribute some information from some of their researchers about the latest about Coronavirus.
In the briefing, the CDC noted that this is still a very new, very fluid situation.
“During an outbreak with the new virus, there is a lot of uncertainty,” Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said. “Our guidelines and recommendations are likely to be interim and subject to change as we learn more. We know that in South Korea no one under the age of 30 has died and in Japan no one under the age of 50 has died. Data from these countries help us understand the potential risk here in the U.S. That’s why it’s so important for older adults and people with serious underlying health conditions to be prepared.”
The Director also talked about some numbers from over the weekend.
“In the U.S., as of Sunday evening, 34 states plus New York City and D.C. have reported more than 500 cases of COVID-19 to CDC and 19 deaths,” Messonnier said on Tuesday. “Nearly half of reported cases are in California and Washington. 18 of the deaths are in Washington. The remaining one is in California.”
The CDC did note that the risk of death from infection does increase – dramatically – with age. Those who are younger without a compromised immune system can recover while those who are older – especially with a compromised immune system – need to take extra precautions.
“We use the broad categories of over 60 or over 65, but the data really says that as you get older, the risk goes up and so in the broader age category of over 60 or over 65, over 80 or older has the greatest risk,” Messonnier said. “So I would recommend that people make their own decisions based on an understanding of that risk.”
– Imported cases in travelers
– Cases among close contacts of a known case
– Community-acquired cases where the source of the infection is unknown.– Total cases reported by CDC: 647
— Travel-related: 83
— Person-to-person spread: 36
— Under Investigation: 528
– Total deaths: 25
– States reporting cases: 34
Is this really a big problem, or is everyone making too big of a deal?
I can’t answer that directly. But it seems like a lot of the medical community thinks this is a big problem. This isn’t just national news making a big deal out of this.
And, I’ve got to say, when Johns Hopkins University, the Mayo Clinic, the CDC, HHS, WHO and other medical outlets start dedicating entire sections of websites to disseminating information, it makes me take note.
The most important thing to take away: It may not make you very sick, but if you continue to live life as normal, you may pass it along to someone else who can’t handle it as well.
That is the concern.
Sure, the regular flu infects and kills far more people, but it isn’t as dealy to those with weakened immune systems or the elderly.
This virus is new, and thus, no one has any immunity to it yet. It seems as though children can ‘handle’ the sickness better, but there is only anecdotal evidence of that, nothing that has been studied or verified by science.
What has been studied is that those with a compromised immune system, or those who are older are more susceptible to this virus.
The other concerning issues is that the virus spreads quickly. And if it spreads across this country like it has in other places, it will become a problem. A big one. If it is quarantined and the medical community does a good job at suppressing the risk, it won’t be a problem.
Only time will tell. But it does create an interesting paradox for the medical community. Because if they do a good job suppressing the risk, people will say, “See! It wasn’t that bad after all!” without recognizing all of the work that went into making certain that the virus wasn’t actually a problem.
But it is important that you do what you can to protect yourself now, and keep up with the news.
What is the coronavirus & who is at risk
The coronavirus can infect anyone. but it seems to be more potent for those who are older or those who have compromised immune systems.
The virus is like every other flu virus that can infect humans in many ways, but not every way. The main difference is it is in the same realm as the SARS and MERS viruses that affected Asia and the Middle east. Research done on the virus pulled from the first few patients to contract the disease showed a more than 80-percent match with SARS in some areas and an almost 95-percent match in others.
Researchers wrote in a recent scientific paper that SARS and Coronavirus are thus related. The authors even noted that the comparability would “[imply] the two belong to same species.”
And according to medical researchers, it was believed that those diseases and this new Coronavirus, came from bats.
But those same researchers noted there were a few things they didn’t know yet:
We don’t know the transmission routine of this virus among hosts yet. It seems the virus is becoming more transmissible between human-to-human. We should closely monitor if the virus continue evolving to become more virulent. Owing to shortage of specific treatment and considering the relatedness between SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV, some drugs and pre-clinical vaccine against SARS-CoV probably can be applied to this virus.
The difference in death-rate between Coronavirus and SARS/MERS
A recent paper, published last week, by Zunyou Wu and Jennifer M. McGoogan, highlight the difference.
A total of 8096 SARS cases and 774 deaths across 29 countries were reported for an overall CFR of 9.6%. MERS is still not contained and is thus far responsible for 2494 confirmed cases and 858 deaths across 27 countries for a CFR of 34.4%. Despite much higher CFRs for SARS and MERS, COVID-19 has led to more total deaths due to the large number of cases. As of the end of February 18, 2020, China has reported 72,528 confirmed cases (98.9% of the global total) and 1870 deaths (99.8% of the global total). This translates to a current crude CFR of 2.6%.
You can read the whole article here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
So, Coronavirus is 1/3rd as deadly as SARS. And Coronavirus is 1/13th as deadly as MERS. And, as one medical researcher put it on CNN the other day, as it evolves in the future, it is statistically more likely to become less deadly. Because the viruses that mutated to become more deadly will stay within the hosts that are dead, rather than continue to be passed along.
What does coronavirus do to people
The coronavirus is very contagious. And only causes symptoms of a fever and cough for most people. That may be the biggest concern for people. It seems innocuous until it is deadly. And it spreads quickly within an infected community.
Here is a snippet from a research paper from Ying Liu, Albert A Gayle, Annelies Wilder-Smith, and Joacim Rocklöv in the Journal of Travel Medicine:
[transmission] estimates for SARS have been reported to range between 2 and 5, which is within the range of the mean [transmission] for COVID-19 found in this review. Due to similarities of both pathogen and region of exposure, this is expected. On the other hand, despite the heightened public awareness and impressively strong interventional response, the COVID-19 is already more widespread than SARS, indicating it may be more transmissible
For the medical community, they are also focused on identifying the symptoms and how to resolve them.
Currently, the medical community says symptoms are fever and cough, “which frequently lead to lower respiratory tract disease with poor clinical outcomes” for people who are older or have pre-existing health conditions. And diagnosis can only be made based on the symptoms, the history of exposure, as well as chest imaging.
That means if you have a runny nose and headache, it is less likely to be coronavirus. If you have a stuffy nose and clogged up sinuses, it is less likely to be coronavirus.
And if you have not been to China or been exposed to someone who has been to China is it unlikely you have Coronavirus.
Is it spreading between humans and other animals
Right now, the medical research community thinks – like SARS – it started in bats and, perhaps, civets. But there was a paper that noted that other animals could be transmitters – but only if infected by another animal.
Yushun Wan, Jian Shang, Rachel Graham, Ralph S. Baric, and Fang Li wrote in the Journal of Virology:
Pigs, ferrets, cats and non-human primates contain largely favorable 2019-nCoV-contacting residues in their ACE2, and hence may serve as animal models or intermediate hosts for 2019-nCoV
But until an animal has been in contact with another animal with the Coronavirus, it is not going to carry the virus.
Are facemasks a good idea
This is straight from the CDC:
CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19. You should only wear a mask if a healthcare professional recommends it. A facemask should be used by people who have COVID-19 and are showing symptoms. This is to protect others from the risk of getting infected. The use of facemasks also is crucial for health workers and other people who are taking care of someone infected with COVID-19 in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).
Things to do right now
A lot of the talk has been about if this virus may eventually become a pandemic. That does not change – in any way – what you need to be doing now.
Right now, simply keep tabs on the news with Coronavirus. Continue to wash your hands – like you would do to combat the spread of the common cold or flu – and avoid touching your face. If you know someone who has traveled to China, monitor them for symptoms. If you know someone who has traveled to an area where other people have traveled from China, monitor them for symptoms.
And again, since the death-rate of Coronavirus is around two- to three-percent, this virus isn’t as deadly as SARS or MERS to the general population. The concern is for those with compromised immune systems and people over 60.
The other thing to do is to keep this potential outbreak in perspective. While, yes it is dangerous to those infected, and yes there is the potential that it could spread to the United States, at this time the best thing to do is remain calm and do what you would normally do to fight against the regular flu.
And, as a reminder, the regular flu is still out there, too. And it has sent 21,000,000 people to the doctor and – according to the CDC – is responsible for up to 46,000 deaths. So protect yourself from the regular flu, too.
