No big changes from this morning, but here is a brief update on the timeline and threats.
The timeline is mostly unchanged. The start time depends on your location, though. The farther west you are, the earlier the chance for storms and the farther east you live, the later the storms will arrive. And example: Closer to I-55, closer to 4a. Closer to Mobile, AL, closer to 9a.
The Karrie Meter is down slightly at a 3.23 out of 11. An “11” on the scale was the Super Outbreak on April 27, 2011. While the “Main Concerns” include a few tornadoes, I’m not overly concerned about the tornado threat as the “TOR LEAN” is down below 1. If we have a few tornadoes, they will all likely be birthed from the same storm over a short period of time.
So, how will it all shake down? Model guidance isn’t very impressed. The left image shows what the line of storms will look like as it enters the area. And the image on the right shows the Updraft Helicity Streaks between now and tomorrow at 6pm – none in our area.
So the threat for severe weather appears to be pretty low and very conditional.
WHO SEES WHAT DURING THE STORMS?
EVERYONE — Breezy conditions, brief rain shower, wind gusts up to 35mph
SOME AREAS — Breezy conditions, brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 45mph
FEW PEOPLE — Breezy conditions, one extended round of heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, small hail
VERY FEW SPOTS — Breezy conditions, very heavy rain, brief localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, the chance for a tornado (up to EF-3 in strength)
A reminder that if you don’t have the NickelBlock Forecasting app yet, you can give it a shot by downloading it from your app store!
You’re a legend. Thanks for the great app and the detailed forecasts.