There was a lot of action today with Coronavirus. Sadly, not all of it was good. While the government continues to work to contain the spread, the number of people who have died from the infection continues to rise. The number of cases continues to rise, too.
Most medical professionals are signalling that this is just the beginning, too. They are saying this is far from over. And that the longer we delay drastic measures the longer this will carry-on into the Summer. There are some indications that the United STates is on pace to have the worst outbreak of this virus in the world. That is a gut-check. It is time to listen to the CDC, HHS, and the government when they suggest Social Distancing and hand-washing.
The latest statistics
Here are a few numbers from some of the reputable sites collecting and releasing data….
CDC & WHO Numbers
Total Worldwide Cases: 414,179
Total Worldwide Deaths: 18,440 ; 4.4% mortality rate
Total United States cases: 54,453
— Travel-related: 584
— Close contact: 986
— Under investigation: 52,883
Total deaths: 737 ; 1.3% mortality rate
States reporting cases: 50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands
COVID-19 cases reported by other medical sites:
Johns Hopkins
Total Worldwide Cases: 471,407
Total US cases: 68,960
Total US deaths: 1.041 ; 1.5% mortality rate
Total US recovered: 616
Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at Univ. of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, put that chart together. As it notes, it is pulling numbers from the Johns Hopkins totals. It shows the double-time of cases as about two-and-a-half days.
Regional Numbers
| Total Cases | Total Tested | Deaths | Percent-positive | Mortality Rate | |
| Mississippi | 377 | 1943 | 5 | 19.40% | 1.33% |
| Louisiana | 1795 | 9414 | 65 | 19.07% | 3.62% |
| Alabama | 386 | 2812 | 1 | 13.73% | 0.26% |
| Tennessee | 784 | 11786 | 3 | 6.65% | 0.38% |
| Arkansas | 308 | 1777 | 2 | 17.33% | 0.65% |
| Total | 3650 | 27732 | 76 | 13.16% | 2.08% |
Making Estimates from past research
I talked about this earlier today, but there is research from the Cruise Ships that may be relevant to estimating the number of cases (since we cannot test everyone, even those with some symptoms, but not all) without testing and estimating the number of asymptomatic cases (the people who don’t feel sick, but are still infected).
This type of estimating isn’t perfect. And it is just an estimate. But based on the past research, it should carry some weight.
| Estimated Total Symptomatic | Estimated Total Asymptomatic | Estimated Total Cases | |
| Mississippi | 575 | 126 | 701 |
| Louisiana | 2738 | 601 | 3339 |
| Alabama | 589 | 129 | 718 |
| Tennessee | 1196 | 262 | 1458 |
| Arkansas | 470 | 103 | 573 |
| Total | 5567 | 1222 | 6789 |
If we assume the standard R0 value (transmission rate) for COVID-19 of 2.5, those who are asymptomatic (1,222 people) have a chance to infect an additional 3,055 people if they do not practice Social Distancing and proper hand-washing, despite feeling just fine.
Things you should be doing now
I know this can all seem overwhelming at times. The sheer amount of information being kicked out by every media outlets is like an avalanche.
So, here are some things: Stay home if you can! Gotta work? That’s understandable. Need food? Sure, head to the store. But try to skip any “for fun” activities in public where you would be interacting with others or in a place with multiple other people.
Some CDC’s guidance:
— Know where to get your local / state-level information
For Mississippi: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html
For Louisiana: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/
For Alabama: http://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/infectiousdiseases/2019-coronavirus.html
For Arkansas: https://www.healthy.arkansas.gov/programs-services/topics/novel-coronavirus
For Tennessee: https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov.html
If you live in a state outside of the region, head to google and type in, “dept of health” followed by whatever state you live. Google should take you to that state’s department of health and on the main page, most states have a link to an update on the Coronavirus.
— Know the Symptoms
Look for things like a fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath. But also know when it may become an emergency. It becomes an emergency when you have difficulty breathing, a persistent pain or pressure in the chest, you develop general confusion, and if you develop bluish lips or face. Also recognize that body aches, weak stomach, nasal congestion, a sore throat, and other symptoms of the regular flu are not the same as the symptoms with Coronavirus.
— Stay home when you are sick
Any kind of sick. If you feel like you may have Coronavirus, call your health care provider’s office in advance of a visit. If you have any sickness, the CDC recommends to limit movement in the community, limit visitors, and practice good social distancing.
— Know if you are at a higher risk
Know what additional measures those at higher risk and who are vulnerable should take. Those at higher risk include older adults (over 60), people who have serious chronic medical conditions (like heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). Some research has indicated that people with asthma may also be included in the higher risk category.
— Take steps to mitigate your infection
The CDC recommends to “Implement steps to prevent illness” by washing high-traffic areas more often, washing hands with soap and water and if someone is sick, to isolate the sick person into a low-traffic area of the home.
— Create a Household Plan
Create a household plan of action in case of illness in the household or disruption of daily activities due to COVID-19 in the community.
