I’m still not a doctor. But I am someone who is trying his best to collect all of this medical information and put it in one place. I try to break it down into understandable English, as best I know how, and make as much information available to you as possible.
As always, there is no angle, no bias, no politicizing here. These are all facts and numbers straight from doctors, medical professionals, and medical researchers.
The latest statistics
WHO Numbers
Total Worldwide Cases: 750,890
Total Worldwide Deaths: 36,405
This chart from the WHO shows another plateau in numbers. The last few times this has happened, it didn’t stick. We will ahve to wait and see how this one pans out.
CDC Numbers
Total United States cases: 163,539
— Travel-related: 1,042
— Close contact: 2,919
— Under investigation: 159,578
Total deaths: 2,860
States reporting cases: 50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands
COVID-19 cases reported by other medical sites:
Johns Hopkins
Total Worldwide Cases: 857,957
Total Worldwide Deaths: 42,139 (incomplete data)
Total Worldwide Recovered: 178,091
Total US cases: 188,547
Total US deaths: 3,900
Total US recovered: 7,096
Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at Univ. of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, put a chart together of the growth. As it notes, it is pulling numbers from the Johns Hopkins totals. It shows the double-time of cases as about two-and-a-half days.
This is a good-looking trend. Notice that the dots are starting to fall short of the extrapolated trendline. That is a good indicator that Social Distancing is starting to slow the spread – a little.
There is still a lot of work to do. But it is a start!
Regional Numbers
| Cases | Tested | Deaths | Percent-positive | Mortality Rate | |
| MS | 937 | N/A | 20 | #VALUE! | 2.13% |
| LA | 5237 | 35498 | 239 | 14.75% | 4.56% |
| AL | 999 | 7249 | 24 | 13.78% | 2.40% |
| TN | 2239 | 27360 | 23 | 8.18% | 1.03% |
| AR | 564 | 7433 | 8 | 7.59% | 1.42% |
| Total | 9976 | 77540 | 314 | 12.87% | 3.15% |
One thing to note, is the mortality rate has increased across all states from last week. Sadly, as this virus continues to infect new people, some of the people who were sick last week are beginning to succumb to the illness.
A few states in the region do release the number of hospitalized people due to COVID-19. Those numbers are as follows:
Mississippi: 211
Louisiana: 1,355 (438 on ventilators)
Alabama: Not given
Tennessee: 175
Arkansas: Not given
Making Estimates from past research
I talked about research from the Cruise Ships that may be relevant to estimating the number of cases without testing everyone (since that isn’t a feasible option). Plus, this type of estimate would make a good “first guess” at the number of asymptomatic people (the people who don’t feel sick, but are still infected), too.
This type of estimating isn’t perfect. In fact, it is far from it. And it is just an estimate. But based on the past research, it is at least a start.
| Estimated Symptomatic | Estimated Asymptomatic | Estimated total | |
| MS | 1429 | 314 | 1743 |
| LA | 7987 | 1753 | 9741 |
| AL | 1524 | 334 | 1858 |
| TN | 3415 | 750 | 4165 |
| AR | 860 | 189 | 1049 |
| Total | 15215 | 3340 | 18555 |
What’s taking so long with a treatment or vaccine?
This is a question – in some form or another – that I hear a lot. Harvard Medical explains it best. They say that an antiviral treatment is difficult due to a few specific reasons
From Harvard:
An antiviral drug must be able to target the specific part of a virus’s life cycle that is necessary for it to reproduce. In addition, an antiviral drug must be able to kill a virus without killing the human cell it occupies. And viruses are highly adaptive. Because they reproduce so rapidly, they have plenty of opportunity to mutate (change their genetic information) with each new generation, potentially developing resistance to whatever drugs or vaccines we develop.
That is why chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine were getting a lot of attention last week. These drugs are already in circulation for use against other viral infections and are known to be effective against malaria, so the thought it, it may be effective against SARS-COV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
“Antimalarial drugs can cause ventricular arrhythmias, QT prolongation, and other cardiac toxicity, which may pose particular risk to critically ill persons,” Jinoos Yazdany, MD, MPH and Alfred H.J. Kim, MD, PhD wrote in an editorial in the Annals of Internal Medicine. “Given these serious potential adverse effects, the hasty and inappropriate interpretation of the literature by public leaders has potential to do serious harm.”
More to Harvard:
There is strong evidence that both drugs kill the COVID-19 virus in the laboratory dish. The drugs appear to work through two mechanisms. First, they make it harder for the virus to attach itself to the cell, inhibiting the virus from entering the cell and multiplying within it. Second, if the virus does manage to get inside the cell, the drugs kill it before it can multiply.
There are two studies right now that have released some preliminary results. One report from China suggested the drugs were very effective at treating the infection, but offered very little hard evidence to back up the claims. The other study was done by scientists in France. But it only featured 42 patients, 26 of which were given the drug, 16 who were not. And despite positive results, there weren’t enough people in the study to make a broad extrapolation for success with the general population.
That second study is under some scientific pressure, though. Researchers, doctors and medical professionals wrote an opinion piece critiquing the methods used. The authors were Alfred H.J. Kim, MD, PhD*; Jeffrey A. Sparks, MD, MMSc*; Jean W. Liew, MD; Michael S. Putman, MD; Francis Berenbaum, MD, PhD; Alí Duarte-García, MD, MS; Elizabeth R. Graef, DO; Peter Korsten, MD; Sebastian E. Sattui, MD; Emily Sirotich, BSc; Manuel F. Ugarte-Gil, MD, MSc; Kate Webb, MBBCh, PhD; Rebecca Grainger, MBChB, PhD; for the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance.
Here is a snippet from what they wrote:
First, potentially substantial confounders may explain the findings. The HCQ + AZM treatment group was recruited from a single center. Instead of excluding patients who declined treatment, the researchers assigned them to the control group. The remainder of the control group was recruited from other centers that could not contribute to the treatment group. This introduces the potential for baseline confounding and different treatment regimens at different institutions. In addition, patients in the HCQ + AZM group had lower viral loads at the time of treatment initiation compared with the control and HCQ groups, and so may have been at a later phase of infection. All patients who received HCQ + AZM had a SARS–CoV-2 baseline cycle threshold (Ct) greater than 22 on polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Of the 5 patients receiving HCQ who had a baseline Ct of 22 or less on PCR (that is, higher viral burden), 4 still had detectable virus at day 6. Of the 9 patients with a baseline Ct greater than 22 on PCR, only 2 had detectable virus at day 6. Thus, another explanation is that the baseline viral load, not therapy with HCQ + AZM, affects viral load at day 6.
And that is just one paragraph from a multi-page piece.
One current study is set to be complete in 2021. And that one should have enough patients and – if I understood correctly – is a double-blind placebo-included test (I’m pretty sure there is an official name for this, but I’m not a medical researcher) meaning the people getting the drug as well as the people giving the drug will be unaware of who is getting it and who is just getting a placebo. That is the best way the medical community knows how to ensure impartiality in the results.
Remdesivir is another drug being looked at by researchers. There is a large study beginning in China. The one case where it was used in the United States it was successful, but because it wasn’t in a medical research setting it is difficult to say the person recovered due to the drug and not due to some other reason.
Smokers added to “higher risk” for serious infection
According to the Mayo Clinic’s Dr. Gregory Poland of the Vaccine Research Group, people with lung disease or smokers “tend to be at higher risk for more severe symptoms from COVID-19.”
Serious symptoms could mean the development of pneumonia (an infection that inflames the air sacs in the lungs) and that may require hospitalization, the use of a breathing machine, or ventilator. As Dr. Poland points out, in some cases, “breathing difficulty coupled with pneumonia makes COVID-19 life-threatening.”
More from Dr. Poland:
Poor lung health appears to play a role in deaths related to COVID-19. Although smoking isn’t the only factor that influences lung health, it does have a considerable effect. Researchers believe that smoking makes people more susceptible to the infection that causes COVID-19 and its complications because smoking damages the body’s natural defenses against some bacteria and viruses.
Data from China show the fatality rate from COVID-19 in that country overall stands at slightly above 2%. For people who had lung disease prior to the infection, that rate is much higher at 6%. Other underlying medical conditions make a difference, too. For people with cardiovascular disease who developed COVID-19 in China, the fatality rate was more than 10%. For those with diabetes, it was 7%, and in people who had high blood pressure, 6%. In addition, the older people were, the higher their risk of severe illness.
From the Mayo Clinic
It can be stressful being stuck in the house all day. The Mayo clinic has some tips on how to handle the stress of being stuck at home.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) offers these suggestions:
— Take breaks from watching, reading, or listening to news stories, including social media.
— Take care of your body. Take deep breaths and stretch.
— Try to eat healthy, well-balanced meals; exercise regularly; get plenty of sleep; and avoid alcohol.
— Connect with others. Talk with people you trust about your concerns and how you are feeling.
On the Mayo Clinic Q&A podcast, Dr. Gregory Poland, infectious disease expert and head of Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group, explains the science behind how the virus makes people sick, and what the virus does to the body. Dr. Poland will also discuss the latest information on clinical trials and vaccine research to fight the disease outbreak.
Things you should be doing now
I know this can all seem overwhelming at times. The sheer amount of information being kicked out by every media outlets is like an avalanche.
So, here are some things: Stay home if you can! Gotta work? That’s understandable. Need food? Sure, head to the store. But try to skip any “for fun” activities in public where you would be interacting with others or in a place with multiple other people.
Some CDC’s guidance:
— Know where to get your local / state-level information
For Mississippi: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html
For Louisiana: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/
For Alabama: http://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/infectiousdiseases/2019-coronavirus.html
If you live in a state outside of the region, head to google and type in, “dept of health” followed by whatever state you live. Google should take you to that state’s department of health and on the main page, most states have a link to an update on the Coronavirus.
— Know the Symptoms
Look for things like a fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath. But also know when it may become an emergency. It becomes an emergency when you have difficulty breathing, a persistent pain or pressure in the chest, you develop general confusion, and if you develop bluish lips or face. Also recognize that body aches, weak stomach, nasal congestion, a sore throat, and other symptoms of the regular flu are not the same as the symptoms with Coronavirus.
— Stay home when you are sick
Any kind of sick. If you feel like you may have Coronavirus, call your health care provider’s office in advance of a visit. If you have any sickness, the CDC recommends to limit movement in the community, limit visitors, and practice good social distancing.
— Know if you are at a higher risk
Know what additional measures those at higher risk and who are vulnerable should take. Those at higher risk include older adults (over 60), people who have serious chronic medical conditions (like heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). Some research has indicated that people with asthma may also be included in the higher risk category.
— Take steps to mitigate your infection
The CDC recommends to “Implement steps to prevent illness” by washing high-traffic areas more often, washing hands with soap and water and if someone is sick, to isolate the sick person into a low-traffic area of the home.
— Create a Household Plan
Create a household plan of action in case of illness in the household or disruption of daily activities due to COVID-19 in the community.
