Quick reminder, that I am a meteorologist and not a doctor. These posts are meant to give everyone an update on what is happening with COVID-19. That may include information regarding some of the latest news and breakthroughs from the medical community. But the information here is simply being redistributed from official sources with some added context.
I am by no means a medical professional.
If you have any questions about how any of this information applies to you specifically, I would highly encourage you to speak to your personal doctor.
New Numbers
WHO Numbers
Total Worldwide Cases: 972,303
Total Worldwide Deaths: 50,322
CDC Numbers
Total United States cases: 239,279
— Travel-related: 1,388
— Close contact: 4,325
— Under investigation: 233,566
Total deaths: 5,443
States reporting cases: 50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands
COVID-19 cases reported by other medical sites:
Johns Hopkins
Total Worldwide Cases: 1,097,909
Total Worldwide Deaths: 59,131
Total Worldwide Recovered: 225, 942
Total US cases: 276,995
Total US deaths: 7,406
Total US recovered: 9,772
From Johns Hopkins: “Based on available modeling, notably by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation , the US government projects at least 100,000 deaths nationwide, under continued and effective implementation of social distancing measures.”
Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at Univ. of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, put that chart together of the growth. Thanks to him for allowing me to post it here.
Regional Numbers
| Cases | Tested | Deaths | Percent-positive | Mortality Rate | |
| MS | 1358 | N/A | 29 | #VALUE! | 2.14% |
| LA | 10297 | 49608 | 370 | 20.76% | 3.59% |
| AL | 1535 | 9601 | 38 | 15.99% | 2.48% |
| TN | 3067 | 37872 | 37 | 8.10% | 1.21% |
| AR | 738 | 9791 | 12 | 7.54% | 1.63% |
| Total | 16995 | 106872 | 486 | 15.90% | 2.86% |
A few states in the region do release the number of hospitalized people due to COVID-19. Those numbers are as follows:
Mississippi: 262
Louisiana: 1,707 (535 on ventilators)
Alabama: Not given
Tennessee: 293
Arkansas: Not given
Making Estimates from past research
I talked about research from the Cruise Ships that may be relevant to estimating the number of cases without testing everyone (since that isn’t a feasible option). Plus, this type of estimate would make a good “first guess” at the number of asymptomatic people (the people who don’t feel sick, but are still infected), too.
This type of estimating isn’t perfect. In fact, it is far from it. And it is just an estimate. But based on the past research, it is at least a start.
| Estimated Symptomatic | Estimated Asymptomatic | Estimated total | |
| MS | 2071 | 455 | 2526 |
| LA | 15705 | 3447 | 19152 |
| AL | 2341 | 514 | 2855 |
| TN | 4678 | 1027 | 5705 |
| AR | 1126 | 247 | 1373 |
| Total | 25921 | 5690 | 31611 |
Those asymptomatic cases are the most important ones to watch. This is also why the “shelter in place” guidance is so important to follow. because you may be infected and not know it. Or your neighbor may be. Or the kids down the street. And it is important to not interact with others directly to slow the spread of the virus.
From the Mayo Clinic
Speaking of “not knowing” if you’ve been infected, a test that can determine if a patient had been infected and recovered from COVID-19 is being developed at the Mayo Clinic. The Mayo Clinic released a short snippet from Dr. Gregory Poland talking about the importance of a new test that may be able to determine if you’ve been infected with COVID-19 or not.
The Mayo Clinic notes that “The antibody test is crucial to give researchers a better understanding of how widespread the virus is. It also would allow them to identify which personal characteristics and environmental factors appear to play a role in how severely the virus affects particular groups of people, or populations. For example, influenza is more likely to cause severe illness among the very young or very old; whereas, Zika virus is most dangerous for women who are pregnant or may become pregnant because it can cause severe birth defects.”
There are many labs currently trying to better test for people’s immunity. Some to help create a vaccine, others to simply understand the scope of the spread.
The Mayo Clinic also made a note about grocery shopping during “shelter-in-place” order…
When you make your grocery list, consider your new routines, your family and the meals you’ll eat. For example, if you have children home from school, you’ll need more supplies for lunches than usual. Peanut butter for sandwiches is a good staple that’s easy to store. Lunch foods such as bread, cheese and deli meat freeze well, so buy extra and freeze what you don’t need right away.
Other fresh foods can be frozen and used later, as well, without losing their nutritional benefits. For example, fresh berries, bananas and other fruits can be frozen then thawed and used in smoothies. Meats such as beef, chicken and fish will last for about four months in the freezer.
As an alternative to picking all fresh foods, buying frozen options from the store can be a good choice when you want to stretch what you have over time. Frozen fruits and vegetables can be a healthy part of your meal planning. Because these items typically are frozen at their peak of freshness and undergo minimal processing before they are packaged, they retain their nutritional value.
Google Mobility Data
Google – like always – is tracking the movement of everyone using Google products. And using their google maps, the company has been able to track how people are spending their time during the pandemic. Not surprising the time at home is up and the time at retail businesses and work is down.
However, it looks like people are spending more time at parks recently, too.
| Retail | Grocery | Parks | Public Transit | Workplace | Residential | |
| Mississippi | -32.00% | -7.00% | +27.00% | -29.00% | -30.00% | +9.00% |
| Louisiana | -45.00% | -16.00% | -18.00% | -49.00% | -35.00% | +11.00% |
| Alabama | -41.00% | -13.00% | +19.00% | -30.00% | -37.00% | +9.00% |
| Arkansas | -29.00% | -7.00% | +81.00% | -22.00% | -27.00% | +7.00% |
| Tennessee | -35.00% | -9.00% | +35.00% | -35.00% | -34.00% | +8.00% |
| Average | -36.40% | -10.40% | +28.80% | -33.00% | -32.60% | +8.80% |
Google notes:
Google prepared this report to help you and public health officials understand responses to social distancing guidance related to COVID-19. This report shouldn’t be used for medical diagnostic, prognostic, or treatment purposes. It also isn’t intended to be used for guidance on personal travel plans.
Location accuracy and the understanding of categorized places varies from region to region, so we don’t recommend using this data to compare changes between countries, or between regions with different characteristics (e.g. rural versus urban areas).
Things you should be doing now
I know this can all seem overwhelming at times. The sheer amount of information being kicked out by every media outlets is like an avalanche.
So, here are some things: Stay home if you can! Gotta work? That’s understandable. Need food? Sure, head to the store. But try to skip any “for fun” activities in public where you would be interacting with others or in a place with multiple other people.
Some CDC’s guidance:
— Know where to get your local / state-level information
For Mississippi: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html
For Louisiana: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/
For Alabama: http://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/infectiousdiseases/2019-coronavirus.html
If you live in a state outside of the region, head to google and type in, “dept of health” followed by whatever state you live. Google should take you to that state’s department of health and on the main page, most states have a link to an update on the Coronavirus.
— Know the Symptoms
Look for things like a fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath. But also know when it may become an emergency. It becomes an emergency when you have difficulty breathing, a persistent pain or pressure in the chest, you develop general confusion, and if you develop bluish lips or face. Also recognize that body aches, weak stomach, nasal congestion, a sore throat, and other symptoms of the regular flu are not the same as the symptoms with Coronavirus.
— Stay home when you are sick
Any kind of sick. If you feel like you may have Coronavirus, call your health care provider’s office in advance of a visit. If you have any sickness, the CDC recommends to limit movement in the community, limit visitors, and practice good social distancing.
— Know if you are at a higher risk
Know what additional measures those at higher risk and who are vulnerable should take. Those at higher risk include older adults (over 60), people who have serious chronic medical conditions (like heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). Some research has indicated that people with asthma may also be included in the higher risk category.
— Take steps to mitigate your infection
The CDC recommends to “Implement steps to prevent illness” by washing high-traffic areas more often, washing hands with soap and water and if someone is sick, to isolate the sick person into a low-traffic area of the home.
— Create a Household Plan
Create a household plan of action in case of illness in the household or disruption of daily activities due to COVID-19 in the community.
