4PM Update on Zeta: New data shifts timeline/impacts slightly for So Miss

There have been a few changes to the forecast today as Zeta reorganizes in the Gulf of Mexico. Nothing drastic, but the timeline and impacts have shifted slightly for a few spots.

With landfall about 24 hours away, I wanted to offer a look at what ou can expect in each town in Southern Mississippi. This is not an extensive list of every town, but I tried to spread them out evenly to include geographically significant places where the forecast was actually different.

If you live between two of the towns mentioned, you’ll have to blend the forecast between the two to give you an idea about what to expect.




Right now

Screenshot from 2020-10-27 15-39-07

4PM SUMMARY

LOCATION…22.7N 90.3W
ABOUT 450 MI…720 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES




Forecast from the NHC

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight and is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).




Northern areas

Quitman

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 40mph

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 40mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are less likely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees.

Bay Springs

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 35mph

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 35mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are less likely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees.

Magee

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 30mph

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 30mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are less likely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees.




Near Highway 84

Monticello

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 30mph

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 25mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are very unlikely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 3 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees.

Collins

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 50mph

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 40mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are less likely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees.




Laurel

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 50mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 40mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are less likely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 8 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees.

Ellisville

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 50mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 40mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are less likely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees.




Waynesboro

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 50mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 50mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.

Leakesville

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 65mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 55mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 10 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.




Along Highway 98

Beaumont / McLain

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 65mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 55mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 8 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.

New Augusta / Richton

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 60mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 55mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 8 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.




Hattiesburg / Petal

Timeline

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 55mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 45mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.

Sumrall/Seminary

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 55mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 40mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.

Columbia

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 45mph

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Lingering showers, wind gusts up to 30mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are Less likely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 3 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.

Tylertown

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 35mph

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Lingering showers, wind gusts up to 30mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are Less likely here

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 3 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.




Purvis

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 55mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Lingering showers, wind gusts up to 40mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 8 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.




The Highway 26 area

Lumberton

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 60mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Lingering showers, wind gusts up to 40mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 6 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.

Poplarville

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 60mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Lingering showers, wind gusts up to 35mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 8 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.

Wiggins

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 70mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Lingering showers, wind gusts up to 45mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 12 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.

Lucedale

Timeline

Wednesday 4PM-8PM – Passing showers and a few thunderstorms as the first rainbands start to move through the area, breezy and humid with wind gusts up to 40mph

Wednesday 8PM-12AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 80mph, tornadoes may be possible

Thursday 12AM-4AM – Heavy rain at times, wind gusts up to 50mph

Thursday 4AM-8AM – Clearing skies, breezy

Expectations

– There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.

– Tornadoes are possible here between Wednesday at 4pm and Thursday at 4am

– Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 12 hours – or more. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down. On top of that, tropical tornadoes will be possible within some of the rainbands.

– Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.





Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.