This week we’ll see a few chances of thunderstorms with an early week MCS overnight into Tuesday as well as Friday into the weekend.
As I mentioned yesterday, we’ll have our first round of storms come in tonight. We’ll see some scattered rain showers develop overnight with the warm front moving in. Starting Monday morning, the warm front will create a fairly thick MCS which will dump quite a bit of rain over parts of central and southern Mississippi. As this moves east, we’ll have another system develop later in the evening and overnight hours. The cold front will move in and bring in 2 rounds of storms which will dump the rest of the rain. Our main concern will be heavy rainfall (up to 5 inches), however we’ll also have a chance of high winds up to 70mph and even a possible tornado.
We’ll have a small break in the weather Wednesday with temperatures in the mid 80s and gusty winds from the exiting cold front. This won’t keep the humidity away for very long as another front takes shape. In the southwestern US, a low pressure system is setting up to move east towards the Deep South.
Around Thursday into Friday, we’ll have our main system set up over parts of LA/MS/AL and will likely bring another large amount of rain with the warm front. Along with this, we could see a similar setup to Monday. Some strong to severe cells could be possible Friday with high dew points and decent instability.
The difference with this system is that it looks to stall over the weekend. The GFS and Euro models both differ on how long the front will remain and the duration of the rain. Judging by the surface analysis from the WPC, it looks like the system may squeeze out some rain as it moves towards the coast.
Select Data Set:
Regional Day-to-Day Forecast
Tonight – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before overnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low in the mid 60s. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Monday
Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. High in the low 80s. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms overnight. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Low in the mid 60s. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms possible into the afternoon. Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid 80s. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the low 60s. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high in the mid 80s. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the low 60s. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon. Partly sunny, with a high in the mid 80s. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm in the early morning. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the upper 60s. South southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday
Showers likely and thunderstorms during the day. Partly sunny, with a high in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Saturday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high in the upper 80s.
Saturday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low in the upper 60s.
Sunday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high in the upper 80s.
