The Storm Prediction Center is currently monitoring parts of Mississippi and Alabama for the potential for severe storms as we head through the next few hours.
From the SPC:
DISCUSSION...Isolated pulse-cellular storms have recently matured across eastern MS into AL over the last couple of hours per latest MRMS mosaic radar imagery. One pulse storm along the Dallas/Lowndes County, AL line has exhibited near 1.5 inch diameter via the MRMS MESH algorithm, with a 55 kt gust recently observed per KSEM ASOS. Though deep-layer shear is weak, the ongoing storms are thriving in a 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE environment, driven by 70+F surface dewpoints and near 100F surface temperatures. 20Z RAP forecast soundings (valid for 22Z) shows a well-mixed boundary layer, with 21Z mesoanalysis depicting 8.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates. As such, the more intense storm cores may experience enough evaporative cooling to support damaging gusts. Given modest mid-level lapse rates, an instance of 1+ inch hail cannot be ruled out. At the moment, the severe threat is expected to be sparse given the isolated nature of the storms. However, should storms cluster and form a loosely organized MCS structure later this evening, the damaging gust threat could become more prevalent. As such, conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending MCS development.
