Our active weather pattern continues this week and looking into the long term it shows no signs of stopping. The upper low still in the south will slowly begin to eject northward brining rainfall to much of the southeast and east coast of the US. In it’s place, a ridge will build allowing heat to build in Texas. A low on the west coast will also work to enhance rainfall across that region and eject shortwaves across the plains bringing severe weather chances to the region. Looking ahead with our high over Texas and low over California, a potential start to the North American Monsoon season may be taking shape. Let’s dive into the details below!
It is hot across the South!
Heat continues to build across the south as the ridge in Mexico continues to build and not move much. This ridge is working to provide temps in the 100s across the state with higher heat indices. These dangerous heat conditions combined with higher humidity values make any work outdoors dangerous, and unfortunately there doesn’t look to be any relief any time soon.
This ridge is expected to build in the coming week and center itself over Texas acting as a heat dome over much of Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of Louisiana. On the positive side, with the ridge more centered over Texas the humidity levels should drop as moisture return from the gulf will be limited which will aid in reducing overall heat index values. Heat is still heat however and proper safety conditions should be taken to ensure people remain unharmed during this weather.
Severe weather possible across the High Plains
As the ridge builds across the south, our severe weather threat will shift further north into the High Plains. The mesoscale convective systems (MCS) that have been impacting the south and central plains will likely form on the edges of the ridge to the north and begin impacting the Midwest. This phenomena is actually common for them as the later in the year we go the further north our severe weather begins to be. The rain should help with drought concerns, but damaging winds and hail could also impact lives up there. Keeping an eye on the day to day evolution will be critical to ensure safe travel planning as we expect several days of severe weather across the High Plains into the Midwest.
Flooding in the Southeast
These past few days, we have been tracking an upper low in the Southeast that has helped produce rainfall across parts of the Southeast. This has led to flooding across many areas and with the low not really moving in the short term, we expect this general stormy pattern to continue across the regions. Once the low moves, storms will be more dependent on the overall position of a stationary front or coastal boundary and be much less widespread then they are currently. This pattern change should happen in the long term, but the speed of this change will need to be monitored as it still appears a bit uncertain at this time.
North American Monsoon waking up?
With our ridge expecting to slide more into Texas and a low expected to be on the west coast. A favorable set up for the North American Monsoon looks likely. The North American Monsoon works with a West Coast low and a central high to provide southerly flow from the Pacific and Gulf of California to the Southwest leading to the development of storms, downbursts, and dust storms. All of which can be beneficial to the region, but in moderation. If a storm (or storms) form and train over on spot we may see flooding concerns increase, but for now that is too far out. This pattern will be overall favorable for the members of this region and on a personal note, the photography of the storms of the North American Monsoon always looks amazing!
Travel Concerns for 6/22/23
Be aware of severe thunderstorms if you plan on driving through the Central and High Plains over the next couple of days. Have multiple ways of receiving weather information and any warnings or advisories and plan your trip accordingly if your route is expected to run into severe thunderstorms. Out in the east, be mindful of any water on the roadways from pooling or overflowing ditches and creeks. Slow down if you encounter heavier rainfall and or reduced visibility as you are driving. For the south, make sure your car’s AC system is in good working order and be sure to keep your vehicle running if you can if you have to stop for an extended period of time. It does not take long for temperatures inside a vehicle to soar in conditions as hot as this and can make for potentially extremely hazardous situations.
Extend Outlook
As mentioned above, the eastern US will be categorized by a general stormy pattern and will continue to see rainfall vary across the region. The South will see heat build and bring more summer conditions across the region. The High Plains and Midwest will see an increase in severe weather chances as several MCS work their way across the region with the largest impacts being damaging winds and hail. Finally, the North American Monsoon looks to come to life and bring a stormy pattern to the American Southwest.
Conclusion
An overall stormy pattern will continue across the Southeast which will raise flooding concerns. Heat continues to build across the South with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s and heat indices even higher. A stormy pattern will also be present across the High Plains with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats. Finally, it appears the North American Monsoon may be starting soon which will bring some moisture to the Southwest. With so much active weather expected for so many its important to have several warning methods to receive information and to continue to check back for updates on the weather in your area!
