6/30/24 245p Update – Hurricane Beryl Update, and what it means for the Gulf Coast

Hurricane Beryl is now a Category 4 Hurricane. And it is still about five days away from being near the Gulf of Mexico.

The system went through some robust Rapid Intensification overnight last night and through the day today, blossoming from a Tropical storm to a Category 4 Hurricane in a bit more than 24 hours. It is still moving west about about the same speed – 21mph.

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MODEL GUDIANCE BREAKDOWN

Here is a quick look at Beryl as of this writing:

Beryl developed a sharp eye overnight and through today, too. But most of the convection still sits on the eastern side of the eye. If this is able to wrap around the eye and we see an eyewall replacement cycle before it moves too far into the Caribbean, we could – again, could – see this system reach Category 5 status.

That said, right now, that isn’t in the cards from the model guidance.

And if you’re asking, “well did the models see this type of intensification to begin with?” the short answer is “Yes” the longer answer is, “some did, just not as fast”

Looking at the model data from 00z today, we can see that many models showed Beryl as a Category 3 Hurricane by 00z on July 1. It is, instead, a Category 4 Hurricane at 18z on June 30. The model guidance from 18z today, holds the system as a Category 4 through the next 24 to 36 hours before it slowly weakens as it crosses the Caribbean.

Model guidance for the track of the system is pretty consistent across the Caribbean and toward the Yucatan peninsula. Based on the intensity guidance, this would put the storm as a Cat1, Cat 2 or even a Cat 3 system as it passes by Jamaica.

Adn a Cat 1 or Cat 2 as it approaches the Yucatan.

And there is a good chance it emerges back into the Bay of Campeche as – at least – a tropical storm in 120 hours from now (five days).

Then what?

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WHAT ABOUT THE GULF COAST

It depends. And, we honestly, don’t know. But the answer isn’t “Nothing.”

Right now, model guidance suggests that a subtropical ridge across the southern United States will help to guide Beryl to the west and toward the Yucatan.

But, that ridge will be breakdown down and shifting to the east during this time, rather than being entrenched and holding its spot.

By Friday, when Beryl is near the Yucatan, the ridge will be shoved easteward by a trough digging intot he Great Lakes.

The will shift how Beryl is moving. The farther east the ridge goes, the quicker that Beryl can make a turn northward.

REMEMBER: ALL TROPICAL SYSTEMS HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD THE STRONGER THEY GET AND, DUE TO CORIOLIS FORCE, ARE ALWAYS PULLED TOWARD THE NORTH POLE

On top of that, ensemble and hi-res model guidance supports the general pattern of, “the stronger Beryl is, the farther northward it will track across the Caribbean.”

If this pattern holds true, we could see something like this:

This is the HAFS model. And it suggests that Beryl tracks farther north, hits Jamaica head on, falls apart and then slowly regroups as it passes over the Yucatan. Leaving the system in the southern Gulf around Friday night / Saturday morning.

Sub. Optimal.

So far, if the ensemble model guidance holds, the most likely “strike zone” for Beryl would then be the western Gulf – from Mexico to Louisiana. But it would be as a weaker system, (according to model guidance) and not a Category 4 monster.

That said, the Gulf is very, very warm. And the ceiling on a tropical cyclone is pretty high.

But it is all TBD.

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WHAT TO DO NOW

Check over your Hurricane Preparedness Kit and make sure that you have all the items you may need. Not because there is any sort of imminent threat, btu rather because it is Hurricane Season and it is always a good idea to make sure your kit is ready to go.