6/6/24 – Tropical Forecast: No activity this weekend, while watching next week

Everything remains calm through the weekend and early next week, but some models are suggesting some development in the Gulf of Mexico towards the end of next week.

500mb map from the EPS // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

The majority of the Atlantic Ocean remains quiet with a couple of tropical waves (tropical low pressure area) starting to form. While these waves have tropical storm potential, it is unlikely that we see any development from them in the next week.

Looking at the flow of the atmosphere from the image above, the black arrows show that the winds in the upper levels are pushing air out to sea across the east coast and Gulf of Mexico. This means if anything were to develop, these winds would keep anything out to sea.

All of this to say, there is no need to worry about a tropical storm suddenly popping up and impacting the US at any point this weekend.



Looking into next week, there is agreement between the GFS and the European models that suggests possible formation of something near the Gulf of Mexico. While the GFS is in favor for an organized system developing, the European models leans more towards an unorganized system. The image below depicts what the GFS model forecasts for next Saturday.

Surface map from the GFS // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

Now keep in mind, this is still over a week away. It is too early to tell how organized the system will get — if it even pulls itself together at all. The important thing to note is that while the models agree that ‘something’ is possible toward the middle-to-end of next week, the organization and severity of the system is still up for debate. We will continue to keep track of this throughout the weekend.



Author of the article:


Riley Newton

Riley is a upcoming senior at Mississippi State University pursuing a degree in Professional Meteorology with a minor in Mathematics. She is apart of the East Mississippi NWA/AMS chapter and wants to work for the NWS after graduating to serve the people and provide forecasts that could save lives.

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