Current satellite and radar data indicate that Hurricane Beryl has completed an eyewall replacement cycle and has strengthened. The eye is now well-defined (again).
The NHC says that radar from Barbados shows a well-defined eye surrounded by deep convection. Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm a drop in central pressure to around 956 mb and winds of about 120 kt.
Beryl has moved northwestward and is currently crossing the southern Windward Islands. A mid-level ridge to the north will steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the Caribbean Sea in the coming days. There is some uncertainty in the track forecast for days 3-5 as Beryl approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, with the forecast adjusted slightly north by the NHC.
MODEL DATA DISCUSSION
Model guidance is still pretty set on landfall along the west coast of the Yucatan- with a slow regression in wind speed along the way.
The reason for the weakening is the anticipated increased westerly shear. Despite this, Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane through late this week. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Jamaica.
There is some discrepancy in the model guidance as to how long Beryl remains a Major Hurricane. And that discrepancy is likely going to impact the future track of Beryl and why there is some uncertainty between Day 3 and Day 5 with respect to the direction the storm will go.
Looking at the model guidance from the European Ensemble guidance, the spread suggests that the longer Beryl remains a stronger storm, the more likely it is to take a more northerly track across the CAribbean. And the sooner it eases back toward Category 1 status, the more westerly the track will become.
Further complicating things is how the evolution of the ridge across the southeastern United States will go. The EPS skewness map from PolarWx suggests that the outliers are leaning toward lower heights to the east and south and higher heights to the north.
In English? It suggests that the outliers may be pulling the “mean” of the model output toward a weaker ridge, when it may, in fact, be a bit more pronounced. Conversely, those same outliers are good indicators for potentials given X, Y, or Z initial conditions. So it is worth continuing to monitor as things aren’t “locked in” yet.
BOTTOM LINE
It looks like Beryl is headed toward the Yucatan, but the track during the next 48 to 72 hours will tell us a lot about where it may end up in the Gulf – a farther north track, puts more Gulf Coast states in the potential path, while a more southerly track removes many states from any potential impacts.
So far, I think it is safe for folks in Florida to take a reasonably good sigh of relief. Same with Georgia and Alabama. That isn’t to say you are 100% in the clear, but rather, the steps necessary to change your potential impacts from nothing to something are large and unlikely to be overcome.
Mississippi and Louisiana, I think still have an outside shot to see impacts, if there is a more northerly track and a weaker ridge.
TExas I think is still in play for a secondary landfall with any track, if the ridge weakens quick and the trough digs father south. That said, the Texas coastline is loooong. So saying that, keep in mind that Brownsville impacts are much different than Galveston impacts.
What are “impacts,” you ask?
To Be Determined. I only say “impacts” to just generally state that there may be “something” happening related to Beryl. Sadly, specifics like, “what are the impacts?” at this point in time are simply unknowable.
For now, check that Hurricane Preparedness Kit and make sure you are ready for Hurricane Season. It is here. And Beryl is looming.
