Still not a doctor. But that’s okay. Because there are tons of great doctors and researchers in this world already.
This is a cultivation of some of the latest news and notes on COVID from legitimate medical resources only. Places like Harvard Medical, Mount Sinai, Mayo Clinic, and the CDC and WHO. Research is pulled directly from medical journals and numbers are directly from the source.
A quick note…
I know we are all getting tired of this thing. I am in the same boat with you guys. I’m tired of wearing a mask. I’m tired of Lysol’ing things. I’m tired of standing six feet from everyone I see (although, I am less concerned about how well my deodorant is working these days).
I want this to be over. And the quickest way to ending this is following the guidelines laid out by the CDC and local governments. Are these guidelines perfect? Probably not. But they are helpful. In some cases, very helpful. And potentially life-saving.
Please, be one of the helpers. Wear a mask, wash your hands, socially distance, and limit your time in public spaces.
Marches aren’t likely to blame for higher numbers in Mississippi
I’ve heard a lot of talk over the last few days about how the increase in recent COVID cases is due to the recent protests and marches. And while there is no rock solid evidence for that, there is also no rock solid evidence against it. That is, sadly, the predicament we are in with COVID. Because it can be passed around silently by those who are asymptomatic, sometimes there is no specific and direct cause-and-effect relationship with a bump in numbers.
In the case of protests, I do have some reasonable evidence showing that the protests weren’t likely the cause of the recent spike.
The marches and protests picked up in late May but didn’t really begin in Mississippi until early June. Based on local media outlets, the first organized marches / protests involving “large groups” were around June 5th and those continued until around June 12th. There were some marches before and some after, but for trying to nail down things, we have to put up a fence somewhere.
Looking at the numbers in the two weeks since that timeframe, the number of daily cases has definitely increased in Mississippi. There were, on average, about 461 new cases per day in the two weeks after each day with a protest. Comparing that to about 308 per day in the two weeks prior.
However, since the incubation period for COVID-19 is – on average – five days, it means that the number of cases in the two weeks after the protests and marches is likely spreading too wide of a net.
Looking at the five days after each day with a march, the average new cases per day were 366. Still higher than 308 per day, sure. But not much different than the five days after Memorial Day (354 per day).
That said, it is still well below the number of new cases per day for the five days after our three-day stretch of gorgeous weather between June 16th and June 19th.
For the five days after each of those days, the average number of new cases per day was 608. Including a record high of more than 1,000 new cases in one day.
The data shows that the increase in numbers recently was more likely in response to people being out and about during the great weather than being out at a rally or protest.
Can I be 100-percent certain of that? Absolutely not. Like I said originally, there is no rock-solid evidence for or against the hypothesis. This data can only show a likelihood, not a certainty.
Here is a look at some of the “major” dates for COVID-19 numbers in Mississippi as well as the five days after those dates and the two week after.
| Total | Five Days after/per day | Two weeks after/per day | |
| Since this started (Mar 11) | 28288 | 4.60 | 41.50 |
| Since Shelter in place (apr 3) | 26927 | 161.80 | 201.64 |
| Since re-opening (apr 28) | 21939 | 261.60 | 251.50 |
| Since Memorial Day (May 25) | 14550 | 354.00 | 312.71 |
| Since BLM Marches (June 5-12) | 11512 | 366.58 | 461.95 |
| Perfect Weather (June 16) | 7640 | 608.00 | 545.71 |
Looking back at the numbers in Mississippi in 14-day increments, we have had some plateaus and dips, but in general, this virus continues to spread. And recently that spread has really accelerated.
| Two week increments | Totals | Per day |
| March 11 – 24 | 380 | 27.14 |
| March 25 – April 5 | 1630 | 116.43 |
| April 6 – 19 | 2774 | 198.14 |
| April 20 – May 3 | 3365 | 240.36 |
| May 4 – 17 | 3555 | 253.93 |
| May 18 – 31 | 4320 | 308.57 |
| June 1 – 14 | 4047 | 289.07 |
| June 15 – 28 | 7149 | 510.64 |
From the WHO
Here is a quick message from the WHO:
Dr. Michael Ryan from the WHO had a great message during the press conference on Wednesday. He said, in part, “If it doesn’t feel safe, it isn’t safe. For you.” He continued: “Should we shut this, close that? It comes down to these binary choices. Open or closed. But we are in a situation right now, like as I’ve said previously, we have to learn to live with this virus. Understanding how this virus is affecting your community, understanding how your behavior, your individual behavior, either increases the risk or decreases the risk of this virus transmitting is absolutely vital.”
Dr. Ryan mentioned that there is a balance between government responsibility and individual responsibility.
“Every individual, every person needs to look at your own risk you need to be aware of what is the local transmission rate is,” Ryan said. “You need to know about the transmission in my area is. You need to be able to take control of your own destiny also. And not just relying on information from governments. We do this every day. We manage risk we decide when we cross the road, we decide when we fly, we decide when we have an operation or not have an operation. Sometimes we make life-and-death decisions about ourselves and about our children. We are by nature – by evolution – risk managers. And I think we are intelligent and we’re able to do that.”
“What we need is the information to make those risk-based decisions,” Ryan said. “We need to gain the knowledge to make good decisions. Knowledge and Information allow you to make a decisions. We Decide on our proximity to other individuals. we decide on the intensity of our local engagements. We decide how long we spend in that environment. We can be advised by government, we can be advised by science. But in the end this comes down to personal motivation and personal choice.”
You can watch the entire Press Briefing here:
Potential for re-infection
As I mentioned the other day, new research is showing that there is a potential that re-infection down the road may – keyword, “may” – become a serious concern. People who are able to successful recover from COVID-19 often end up doing so by producing antibodies. Some new research, published in Nature Medicine, noted that in a small study suggest that levels of one type of antibody dropped sharply within two to three months.
Not great news.
That said, there is another type of antibody that targets the “spike protein on the coronavirus” and helps protect against reinfection, and that decline in numbers wasn’t as pronounced.
The medical community is still uncertain about how re-infection may work. Or if it will be a concern at all. There is a chance that even the tiniest amount of antibodies in the system may prevent re-infection.
But that may also not be the case.There is still a lot of research to be done and it is a bit too “early in the game” to make any specific case one way or the other.
Harvard Medical noted: “Another consideration is that antibodies are only one part of the body’s immune response. Memory B cells, for example, can quickly generate a strong antibody response to a virus the body has encountered before.”
In a paper titled, “Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19” released on July 1st, the researchers proposed that “SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals.”
But, more research needs to be conducted as the authors’ findings have already been questioned be other medical researchers and scientists.
From the Mayo clinic
The Mayo Clinic released a new “debunking” list for COVID-19 myths that are floating around. Here are some that made the short list:
— Pneumonia and flu vaccines. There is currently no vaccine to prevent the COVID-19 virus. Vaccines against pneumonia, such as the pneumococcal vaccine, don’t provide protection against the COVID-19 virus. The flu shot also won’t protect you against the COVID-19 virus.
— Saline nasal wash. There is no evidence that rinsing your nose with saline protects against infection with the COVID-19 virus.
— High temperatures. Exposure to the sun or to temperatures higher than 77 F (25 C) doesn’t prevent the COVID-19 virus or cure COVID-19. You can get the COVID-19 virus in sunny, hot and humid weather. Taking a hot bath also can’t prevent you from catching the COVID-19 virus. Your normal body temperature remains the same, regardless of the temperature of your bath or shower.
— Low temperatures. Cold weather and snow also can’t kill the COVID-19 virus.
— Antibiotics. Antibiotics kill bacteria, not viruses. However, people hospitalized due to COVID-19 might be given antibiotics because they also have developed a bacterial infection.
— Alcohol and chlorine spray. Spraying alcohol or chlorine on your body won’t kill viruses that have entered your body. These substances also can harm your eyes, mouth and clothes.
— Drinking alcohol. Drinking alcohol doesn’t protect you from the COVID-19 virus.
— Garlic. There’s no evidence that eating garlic protects against infection with the COVID-19 virus.
— Ultraviolet (UV) disinfection lamp. Ultraviolet light can be used as a disinfectant on surfaces. But don’t use a UV lamp to sterilize your hands or other areas of your body. UV radiation can cause skin irritation.
— 5G mobile networks. Avoiding exposure to or use of 5G networks doesn’t prevent infection with the COVID-19 virus. Viruses can’t travel on radio waves and mobile networks. The COVID-19 virus is spreading in many countries that lack 5G mobile networks.
— Disinfectants. When applied to surfaces, disinfectants can help kill germs such as the COVID-19 virus. However, don’t use disinfectants on your body, inject them into your body or swallow them. Disinfectants can irritate the skin and be toxic if swallowed or injected into the body.
— Supplements. Many people take vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, green tea or echinacea to boost their immune systems. While these supplements might affect your immune function, research hasn’t shown that they can prevent you from getting sick. The supplement colloidal silver, which has been marketed as a COVID-19 treatment, isn’t considered safe or effective for treating any disease.
Harvard Medical breaks down how vaccines go from the lab to the Pharmacy:
There are a handful of companies working toward a vaccine and a handful more that are working on labs, testing, and going through trials. But what does that all mean? And how many steps does it take to get something from the lab to your doctor’s office?
Harvard Medical is here to explain. Here are the four steps of creating and distributing a vaccine:
Pre-clinical testing: Animals are infected with the virus. Scientists study their immune response to see what aspects of the immune response might be critical for protection. Normally, a vaccine is first tested in animals. However, in the setting of a pandemic such as this one, the animal testing stage can be skipped.
Phase 1 trials: A vaccine is tested in small groups of people to determine what dose safely and consistently stimulates the immune system. At this stage, scientists don’t yet know if the immune response triggered by the vaccine will protect against the virus.
Phase 2 trials: The vaccine is given to hundreds or thousands of people. Scientists continue to focus on whether the vaccine is safe and produces a consistent immune response.
Phase 3 trials: These trials typically enroll tens of thousands of people. This is the first phase that involves a placebo group. It compares the number of people who get sick in the vaccine group to the number of people who get sick in the placebo group. This is the only phase that can show whether or not the immune response triggered by the vaccine actually protects against infection in the real world.
This is why the jump to administer Hydroxychloroquine didn’t end up successful for a lot of people. It wasn’t tested and vetted, nor did it go through clinical trials. And that is an important step toward finding a treatment – and in this case a vaccine – against a sickness.
Currently the United States government is allowing for clinical trials to be combined in order to expedite the process, but even at “WARP” speed, it will still take some time to work through all of the trials and determine if a vaccine is viable or not.
The Bottom Line
Do what you can to help your friends and neighbors during this tough time. Follow CDC guidelines and be supportive to each other.
Thank you for always helping us stay updated on the weather and especially this virus.