A great eye by Dan Wiggins! He shot me a DM on twitter noting the developing of a weak upper-level low in the Gulf.
Ont he map below, it is indicated by the red “L” with Beryl as the red “B” and Invest 96L backin behind both. The white lines indicate the mid-level wind direction.
WHAT’S NEW?
Originally, the thought was that Beryl was going to flatten out and move west for a bit today. Most model guidance has been pretty adamant about that. And that may still happen. But the development of this weak upper-level low in the Gulf may complicate that.
The reason? Models don’t know it is there.
The impact will likely be a very subtle Fujiwhara Effect. And I mean veerryy subtle. Because Beryl is much stronger than the upper-level low.
That would pivot Beryl more northward and nudge the upper-level low more southward. But again, pretty subtle.
And that means the movement of the ULL becomes very important. Because if it slides more southward, the nudge northward is goingt o be less meaningful. While a more northward track of the ULL means a more northward nudge of Beryl. The different potnetial directions are indicated by the mint colored and black colored arrows below.
So how far north can it go? Well, only so far, with the ridge to the north.
The ridge is providing a bit of a fence, keep Beryl – generally – on the track it is on. But there is a chance it continues to move more west-northwest than due west because of this interaction. And that may play a role is where it ends up in the Gulf – and how strong it is when it gets there.
WHAT NOW?
It is a bit of a TBD situation. Because if the models can’t see this thing, they can’t know how Beryl will interact with it. This means we have to really lean on the smart folks at the National Hurricane CEnter to give us the best forecast.
On top of that, be on the lookout for some minor adjustments to the track in the next few updates, given this new development.
