The Tropical Storm formerly known as Fred couldn’t have taken a more difficult path to the Gulf of Mexico. After waltzing through the Caribbean like Sideshow Bob moves through a field of rakes, it decided to trapse all the way across the island of Cuba.
Interestingly, this was, like, the only possible way it was going to get to the central Gulf, though. And as we discussed previously, if it did take this path it was going to be a shell of its former self by the time it got there.
And here we are.
Fred is lifting NW from the tip of Cuba into the central Gulf.
The Good News
There is honestly, not much, but it is important.
The upper level low to the north of Fred (“UL” in the satellite image above), is helping to limit the current risk that Fred quickly re-develops into a Hurricane. It is offering just enough shear and tugging at Fred just enough to give is a fully “green light” to take off.
There may be subtle interaction with that upper-level Low that may shift Freds track and where the center re-develops. That interaction may change the amount of time Fred spends over the warmest of the warm waters of the Gulf. And may help to limit strengthening.
Fred is now no different that a simply tropical wave entering the Gulf, so it isn’t like it has some sort of ‘head start’ on reorganizing and redeveloping. It will have to start from Square One all over again.
Rapid intensification, given the latest data, looks to be an unlikely outcome. The peak intensity for Fred is – likely – below a Category 3 Hurricane.
We are still about 48-72 hours away from any impacts along the northern Gulf Coast, so you have plenty of time to watch this, check you Hurricane Preparedness Kit, and get ready for any impact Fred may throw out at the Coast.
The (Not as) Good News
Fred will have an environment that is capable of producing a tropical storm or hurricane above a Gulf of Mexico that is more than capable of feeding a tropical storm or hurricane. In fact, the water temperatures in the Gulf right now, particularly the central Gulf, are very warm at the surface and also down at depth. The 26C isotherm is more than 100m deep in places.
That is 4x deeper than what is needed to feed and sustain a hurricane.
While the chance for Rapid Intensification isn’t “likely” it is also not “zero” as the data show a 5- to 15-percent chance that during the next 72 hours Fred increases intensity by up to / more than 65kts.
This also shows a 13-percent chance that Fred picks up 25kts of wind during the next 24 hours.
And while the data suggest a 13-percent chance, the human writing this suggests a likelihood closer to 60- to 80-percent. In fact, Id go as far as to say there is a better chance this is a Tropical Storm with 50kt wind by this time tomorrow night than there is a chance for any one storm to hit any specific point across south Mississippi tomorrow.
More “not as great” news is that the model guidance right now is almost worthless. Because this thing has been over land, the Hurricane Hunters haven’t been able to fly through it. So we have been missing out on valuable data. On top of that, it no longer has a defined center, so the models can’t find a point to grab ahold of to make a prediciton.
So you end up with stuff that looks like this:
While the forecast track for model guidance isn’t “terrible” I do think the forecast data for intensity is. And that isn’t the computers fault, they can’t do what they can’t do. And they can’t make accurate forecasts for intensity for a storm that doesn’t have a center.
And, full disclosure here, the place where the center forms will also dictate the eventual track of the storm. And there isn’t a center yet, and we can’t accurately predict where that may develop, either.
Nick’s Two Cents
Apologies to Tim Doherty at WDAM for stealing the title of his wonderful podcast. But here is the shakedown.
Fred is probably going to become a tropical storm again by late Sunday night or early Monday morning.
Depending on where the center forms, it could drag Fred across some very – VERY! – warm water in the Gulf that could give Fred quite the boost. If that happens, I think a Category 1 Hurricane is possible.
I also think anything stronger than a low-end Category 2 is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but very, very, very unlikely.
If you live between Houma, Louisiana and Miramar Beach, Florida… and within 80 miles of the coastline, Fred could mean a fair amount of rain, flooding (from rain or storm surge), and wind.
I’m going to hold off on putting together the Tropical Threat Index for the moment, but I may try to post it later tonight if/when more data comes in. I’ll also try to put together a county-by-county breakdown for my South Mississippi friends tomorrow.
How to prepare
Check your Hurricane Kit! Make sure you have food and water to last for, at least, a few days should power go out. Clean up around the outside of your home so there isn’t any debris that can get thrown around in the wind.
Have batteries? Fired up that generator lately? Need any medicines? All good things to think about right now.
Other than that, simply keep up with the weather forecast and know where the storm is going and how it may impact your location based on the forecasts here, from the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center.
Nick Lila, South Ms is blessed indeed to have a friend like you! You are an awesome guy! Thank you!
Thank you so much! It is such a blessing to South Mississippi for you to continue watching out for us. We miss you being here, but wish you all the best in whatever you want to do.