With all the hubbub about the tropics coming up with August near an end, I figured I’d give an update on a couple of the systems that are near our neck of the woods.
Invest 91L
Invest 91L has been the one on everyone’s mind that is living close to the Gulf of Mexico. After it formed off the coast of Florida, it’s currently on a western track across the Gulf.
Observing it from space, it looks to be on a mostly western track towards the middle of the Gulf. Both the GFS and the Euro have this landing around Mexico to Eastern Texas with little stray from its path. The two main reasons for this low pressure system not moving towards the northern Gulf to MS/LA/AL is shear and the big ridge. Upper level shear shows winds almost purely moving west which will guide the storm out towards Texas. With the ridge moving closer to the Southeast, it will create a very strong high pressure over the Southeast which will also be a help keeping this invest to the west. Model guidance also shows this storm on average staying at Tropical Storm status.
Invest 90L
Invest 90L is the other tropical wave that developed over the Lesser Antilles. This wave has a bit more rotation to it on the outer sections which may help it organize a bit as it keeps moving. However, this will take a hard right turn into the Atlantic fairly soon.
Upper level shear coming from the south and east will guide the storm towards Hispaniola and out to sea. Intensity guidance averages out to mostly tropical storm status but could reach a Category 1.
So far, neither of these storms will likely be a threat to us near the Gulf Coast. As the massive ridge stays over us, it’s keeping the tropical disturbances away, however, we will still have to keep an eye out for any other disturbances for the next couple of months.
Select Data Set:
Regional Day-to-Day Forecast
This Afternoon – Sunny and hot, with a high near 104. Heat index values as high as 111. East wind around 10 mph.
Tonight – Mostly clear, with a low around 77. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 109. Light east northeast wind becoming east southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Monday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 76. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Tuesday – Sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Light north wind becoming east northeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday – Sunny and hot, with a high near 106. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 79. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight.
Thursday – Sunny and hot, with a high near 107. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east southeast in the afternoon.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 77.
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 105.
Friday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 77.
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 105.
