It looks like the Tropics will be picking up as we head through the next few weeks. This isn’t unexpected. As we reach toward the peak of Hurricane Season, we naturally are reaching the best time of the year for tropical systems to develop.
The NHC is now monitoring three areas with the potential for development during the next five days. There is an area that is still TBD and then Invest 97L and Invest 98L.
There is plenty of support for this within the model guidance, too.
The Euro shows a handful of members developing something from each area.
And some of those members also show a potential system near the US mainland. Here is that same animation as a static image.
But before you get too concerned about anything – or not concerned – a lot of this model guidance is very early. Notice that in the image above, that the end of those lines have numbers in the 100s and 200s. That is indicating the forecast hour. And 120 hours is five days, 240 hours is 10 days.
So, these spaghetti plots are looking out more than five days and even as far as more than 10 days out.
And, as many of you know, looking out more than about five days with anything tropical can’t really offer us much in the way os specifics. But it can give us some general ideas.
And, generally speaking, it looks like the Gulf may have a system try to sneak into the southern and western side by the beginning of next week. And it also shows that the other areas of interest out in the open Atlantic are more likely going to stay out to sea.
In other words, model guidance suggests that Invest 97L and 98L are currently shown to be a non-issue.
Again, generally. There are some operational models out there that want to drive each of these closer to the US, but using operational guidance for the tropics for systems this far out doesn’t really have much utility. These models are often very wrong looking out more than five days.
It is the “TBD” area that probably poses the highest risk to impact life in the US within the next 10 days. And as of now, that threat is still ont eh lower-end of the scale.
Certainly, not zero. But lower.
And so far that is supported by the ensemble guidance and the operational guidance alike. That gives us higher confidence in the overall forecast.
What is the forecast, given that consistency? Not particularly precise.
There may be an area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the time we get toward the beginning of next week. And where it – whatever is there – goes, is still unknown. But please keep tabs on the forecast as we move through the rest of this week and through the weekend. As we just saw with GRace, the Gulf of MExico can easily produce and support a powerful hurricane.
