During the next few days, the overall pattern is going to persist. Temperatures will continue to run in the 90s with Heat Index values around 105.
High pressure is still in control across parts of the Southeast. This is helping to keep things warm with plenty of sinking air. There is also a slice of drier air aloft, too. That drier aloft mixes down during daytime heating and allows temperatures to climb an extra few degrees.
But that same ridge also is one of the pieces we are watching in the tropics.
Tropical Note
The above-mentioned ridge of high pressure will ease out of the area as an upper-level low swings through the region from the east to the northwest from the Bahamas to the Ohio River valley.
The upper-level low is the red circled area near the bahamas in the image above. That will help to erode away, a bit, at the ridge in the Southeast. It will also help to shove it out of the way.
That may open the door for the cluster of storms in the southern Caribbean to lift north into the Gulf of Mexico. As it does so, computer weather models continue to show the potential for that cluster to get better organized and develop into some sort of tropical system – from just a Tropical Storm to a Category 2 Hurricane.
You can get a better idea about where it is with a wider view, perhaps. Below is the entire Atlantic basin.
I’m not going to show any model maps or other guidance in this post, but I will say that the US Gulf Coast is not in the clear from this one. And I think everywhere from Brownsville, Texas to Mobile, Alabama needs to keep tabs on this potential system.
The timeline for this would be starting as early as Sunday night, but likely not until Monday. And then impacts may stick around through Tuesday.
But it will depend on a lot. And please – PLEASE! – keep tabs on teh forecast. I may just be over-concerned, but for the moment, I think it is a possibility, even without looking at a single forecast weather model.
And, today after looking at the satellite data, I am more concerned about this being a problem for Mississippi than I was 24 hours ago.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 60 percent. Highest heat index readings 100 to 103.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph.
Thursday
Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 60 percent.
Thursday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 70s.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s. The chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s. The chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday Night – Impacts from tropical system possible
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 70s.
Monday – Impacts from tropical system possible
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy. Highs around 90. The chance of rain 70 percent.
