8/27/21 7PM Hurricane Ida update – a county-by-county breakdown for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama

Let me start by saying that this forecast may change. And is not set in stone. I really encourage everyone to check back every – at least! – 12 hours for an update until landfall on Sunday afternoon. Hurricane Ida is now forecast to become a Major Hurricane during the next 48 hours leading up to landfall. Rapid Intensification is currently in the forecast as it is anticipated to move over the ‘loop current’ in the Gulf of Mexico.

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Looking at the Forecast from the National Hurricane Center, they are concerned about very heavy rain, flooding, wind, and a few tornadoes.

Wind risk
Tornado Risk
Flooding Risk

Looking at the Tropical Threat Index I’ve created, this lands at an 8.67 out of 10.

That is equal to where Laura was on this scale last year.

The Wind and Rainfall don’t get any higher on the scale. And the current peak surge estimate of 15ft is 1ft away from making this a more “impactful,” by the numbers, on this scale than Hurricane Laura and equal to Hurricane Katrina.

Now, this is just numbers on a page, and both of those storms will forever leave their mark on history for many different reasons. But it also means that this storm will have the numbers to do the same.



Keep in mind, this is a preliminary forecast that is subject to change given the nature of tropical forecasting. Please check back for updates.

Louisiana

St. Helena Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 80mph
– Wind gusts up to 95mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

Tangipahoa Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 80mph
– Wind gusts up to 95mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

Washington Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 80mph
– Wind gusts up to 95mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

Livingston Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 80mph
– Wind gusts up to 95mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

St. Tammany Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 75mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High



Mississippi

NEAR I-20

Copiah County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Simpson County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Smith County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Jasper County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate

Clarke County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate



HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR

Lincoln County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Lawrence County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Jeff Davis County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Covington County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Jones County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Wayne County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate



HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR

Pike County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 75mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

Walthall County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

Marion County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

Lamar County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Forrest County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Perry County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 1pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Greene County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 1pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High



HIGHWAY 26 CORRIDOR

Pearl River County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 80mph
– Wind gusts up to 95mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

Stone County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 1pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 75mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High

George County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 1pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High



Alabama

Sumter County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Choctaw County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High

Washington County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High



Coastal Communities

While I didn’t breakout coastal counties, do know that if you live along the coast between roughly Grand Chanier, Louisiana and Orange beach, Alabama you need to consult your local emergency management officials to see if a mandatory evacuation is in place.

Evacuations may be needed for a much larger area than you’d think at first glance.Notice the area with “6ft above ground level” stretches from Vermilion Bay all the way to the MS/AL border.

And up to 15 feet of surge is possible from the forecast from the National Hurricane Center

That is on top of the potential for much higher wind speeds, given you are right on the water. So, if you are ordered to evacuate, please listen. This is not going to be a fun storm to ‘ride out’ at home.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.

2 thoughts on “8/27/21 7PM Hurricane Ida update – a county-by-county breakdown for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama

  1. Harrison County in MS was never mentioned yet we are coastal MS – Gulfport, Biloxi, etc. And we took the worst hit during Katrina but were seldom mentioned then either! The focus seems to always be on New Orleans and never “our land mass.” What can you tell me about Harrison County and our outlook for Ida? Even the Weather Channel ignores us time after time. Thank you for everything you do!

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