8/28/21 10PM Hurricane Ida update

The latest from the National Hurricane Center still has Hurricane Ida set to Rapidly Intensify as it traverses the Gulf of Mexico and moves toward the Louisiana coastline.

Landfall is anticipated on Sunday afternoon / evening.

Current Observations

LOCATION…23.0N 84.0W
BOUT 105 MI…165 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 615 MI…985 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
WIND…. DISTANCE/DIRECTION
64 KT……. 20 NE 0 SE 0 SW 0 NW.
50 KT……. 50 NE 30 SE 0 SW 30 NW.
34 KT…….100 NE 60 SE 40 SW 70 NW.
12 FT SEAS..105 NE 0 SE 0 SW 105 NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



Watches & Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

  • East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
  • Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

  • Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth
  • Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
  • Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

  • Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
  • Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
  • Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

  • Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
  • Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
  • Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.



Brief Discussion

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 84.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida moves inland. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 989 mb (29.21 inches).



Potential Local Impacts

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA…2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba, and these winds will continue for a few more hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash and riverine flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.



NHC Technical Discussion

Ida made landfall in the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio around 2320 UTC with maximum sustained winds estimated to be around 70 kt. Radar data from Cuba indicate that the inner core of Ida has remained intact after its passage over western Cuba with a well-defined eye and relatively symmetric eyewall evident. In addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in both intensity and coverage, a sign that Ida is strengthening.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Ida and so far have found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 75 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A subtropical ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the weekend. This feature should continue to provide a steering flow that will take Ida steadily northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. The models remain in very good agreement and show Ida making landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday morning.

After the storm moves inland, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and then the northeast is predicted as Ida moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of the ridge. Since the models are tightly clustered and because the steering flow is well pronounced, there is high confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids, which are often the most accurate models. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Ida is expected to remain in conducive conditions for intensification until it reaches the central Gulf coast. The global models show a very favorable upper-level wind pattern over the storm and abundant environmental moisture. These conducive atmospheric conditions combined with very warm Gulf of Mexico waters should allow Ida to rapidly intensify this weekend. In fact, it seems likely that Ida will pass over a warm eddy over the central Gulf of Mexico, where the ocean heat content is very high.

All of the models show significant strengthening, but there is a fair amount of spread on how strong the hurricane will get. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance, and shows Ida becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane prior to reaching the coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear.

As Ida continues to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, an expansion of its wind field is predicted. The NHC wind radii forecast is largely based on the radii consensus, and winds of at least tropical storm force are likely to reach the coast Sunday morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and property for this dangerous event need to be made on Saturday.



Key Messages

  1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected to continue for the next few hours in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
  2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
  3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
  4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.


Forecast Points

INIT 28/0300Z 23.0N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 24.4N 85.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.1N 87.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 27.8N 89.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 29.2N 90.8W 110 KT 125 MPH…INLAND
60H 30/1200Z 30.7N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 32.3N 90.6W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 34.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 36.8N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.

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