A real quick note on these county-by-county breakdowns. I’ve had some requests for coastal counties and some farther inland. I wish I could get them all. But, I have to draw a line somewhere. If I can get some extra time later today I may try to add some of them in, but these are already a bear to tackle.
Hurricane Ida is likely going to being Rapid Intensification today, and that will blossom this already potent storm into a rather large and even more potent storm.
The Tropical Threat Index is still sitting at an 8.67 out of 10. But keep in mind that the greatest impacts from these Major Hurricanes are always along the coast. And just because it is a Major Hurricane, doesn’t mean everyone gets Major Hurricane conditions.
Some places will be really breezy with occasional tropical showers. While others get 100mph wind and constant downpours.
There is some good news in here, though. And that is the overall threat for sustained wind is coming down a hair for many places across south Mississippi and western Alabama. There was a 5-15mph reduction in wind speeds in this forecast. And a 5mph reduction in estimated wind speed and potential wind gust may not sound like much, but in physics, every little bit helps!
For example, here is some information about how the increase in wind speed to the amount of damage caused is not linear.
From NOAA: “What this means is the potential damage from a hurricane is 2^8 power. For example, a doubling of the wind speed from 75 mph (121 km/h) to 150 mph (241 km/h) is not a doubling or quadrupling of potential damage but a 256 times increase (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2=256).”
So, we the estimated wind speed drops by 5mph it is actually meaningful.
That said, many places are still looking at the potential for sustained wind greater than 40mph and gusts greater than 60mph. So, while it isn’t like this will be a walk in the park… it also isn’t like standing behind a 737.
Recently, someone asked if there was a way of people could help support the site financially. You know, to help out for all the forecasting.
So, I set up this Paypal link to help those who want to help me pay for server space, bandwidth, and other costs of maintaining this site!
Keep in mind, this is a preliminary forecast that is subject to change given the nature of tropical forecasting. Please check back for updates.
A couple of notes with ‘how to read’ this information…
– Timeline is always always purposefully wide to corral any wiggles in the storm’s motion.
– Rainfall estimations are always in 3″ windows.
– Sustained wind estimates are for ‘up to’ a certain speed. I am forecasting for the top-end potential to help people prepare. If you only see wind at 45mph and the forecast was for ‘up to’ 55mph, the forecast was accurate. The same is true for wind gusts.
– Impacts break down the most likely impacts to cause disruptions, other impacts are possible
– Power outage risk is pretty straight-forward based on rainfall and wind speed
Louisiana
St. Helena Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Tangipahoa Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Washington Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Livingston Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 75mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
St. Tammany Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Mississippi
NEAR I-20
Copiah County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Simpson County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Smith County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jasper County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Clarke County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
Lincoln County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Lawrence County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jeff Davis County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Covington County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jones County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Wayne County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR
Pike County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 75mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Walthall County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Marion County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Lamar County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Forrest County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Perry County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Greene County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
HIGHWAY 26 CORRIDOR
Pearl River County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Stone County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
George County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Alabama
Sumter County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Choctaw County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Washington County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Coastal Communities
While I didn’t breakout coastal counties, do know that if you live along the coast between roughly Grand Chanier, Louisiana and Orange beach, Alabama you need to consult your local emergency management officials to see if a mandatory evacuation is in place.
Evacuations may be needed for a much larger area than you’d think at first glance.Notice the area with “6ft above ground level” stretches from Vermilion Bay all the way to the MS/AL border.
And up to 15 feet of surge is possible from the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
That is on top of the potential for much higher wind speeds, given you are right on the water. So, if you are ordered to evacuate, please listen. This is not going to be a fun storm to ‘ride out’ at home.
Thanks so much for all you do for us Nick! Much appreciated!! Follow on fb too but love the app.
You need to come back to wdam