Before I get started, Dr. Kim Wood a satellite data guru, fantastic meteorologist, and all around great human up at Mississippi State – and someone who is the pride of Oregon State University – put together a great side-by-side of Ida vs. Katrina.
Okay, now that I’ve shared that…. The forecast has seen some moderate changes with slight trimming and additions here and there. Particularly with rainfall. The wind was bumped up in a few places, too.
Then, I tried to offer a power outage forecast.
This is a tough thing to forecast. But given the amount of wind coming, the amount of rain slated to fall, and what I’ve heard from local and regional power companies and linesmen, plus what I know about the local vegetation, I tried to add an attempt to let you know how long you may be without power.
IMPORTANT NOTE: IF YOU AHVE ALREADY LOST POWER, KNOW THAT YOUR POWER IS UNLIKELY TO BE RESTORED BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING
Please keep in mind that this is only a forecast. I’m not an expert on power grids and knowing which trees close to what power lines will fall which direction is a bit of an unknowable thing. So this is a broad generalization based on the above-mentioned criteria.
During this (and previous) event, people have asked if there is a way to “‘help’ or ‘say thanks’ for all of the forecasting work I do. For the longest time I said, ‘nah! I just like doing this! You know, to help!’ But I was recently convinced that other want to ‘help’ in their own way, too.
And their way of helping, or simply saying ‘thank you’ is with a donation to the blog to help keep it running – or to help keep me running. So I’ve added this link. If you are one of those people, let me say thank you to YOU.
Keep in mind, this is a preliminary forecast that is subject to change given the nature of tropical forecasting. Please check back for updates.
A couple of notes with ‘how to read’ this information…
– Timeline is always always purposefully wide to corral any wiggles in the storm’s motion.
– Rainfall estimations are always in 3″ windows.
– Sustained wind estimates are for ‘up to’ a certain speed. I am forecasting for the top-end potential to help people prepare. If you only see wind at 45mph at your house but the forecast was for ‘up to’ 55mph, the forecast was accurate. The same is true for wind gusts.
– Impacts break down the most likely impacts to cause disruptions, other impacts are possible
– Power outage risk is pretty straight-forward based on rainfall and wind speed
-Power Outage Duration is also based on the same criteria that go into the risk level, but assigned a length of time based on vegetation and rural’ity of the county – the more rural the area in which you live, the longer it may take to get power restored
Louisiana
St. Helena Parish
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 8″ to 11″ of rain (up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 14 days
Tangipahoa Parish
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 8″ to 11″ of rain (up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 14 days
Washington Parish
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 8″ to 11″ of rain (up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 14 days
Livingston Parish
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 10″ to 13″ of rain (up to 18″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 75mph
– Wind gusts up to 95mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 48 hours; up to 17 days
St. Tammany Parish
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 8″ to 11″ of rain ( up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 14 days
Mississippi
NEAR I-20
Copiah County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 7 days
Simpson County
Timeline: Through Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 7 days
Smith County
Timeline: Through Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Jasper County
Timeline: Through Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 7 days
Clarke County
Timeline: Through Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 2″ to 5″ of rain (up to 8″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 30mph
– Wind gusts up to 50mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 5 days
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
Lincoln County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain (up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Lawrence County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain (up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Jeff Davis County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Covington County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Jones County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 8 days
Wayne County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 35mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 6 days
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR
Pike County
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 11 days
Walthall County
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 11 days
Marion County
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 11 days
Lamar County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain (up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Forrest County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Perry County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Greene County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
HIGHWAY 26 CORRIDOR
Pearl River County
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain (up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 13 days
Stone County
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 11 days
George County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
Jackson County
Timeline: Through Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Storm Surge: 4-7 feet
Harrison County
Timeline: Through Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain (up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 10 days
Storm Surge: 5-8 feet
Hancock County
Timeline: Through Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 11 days
Storm Surge: 6-9 feet
Alabama
Sumter County
Timeline: Through Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 2″ to 5″ of rain (up to 8″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 30mph
– Wind gusts up to 50mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 6 days
Choctaw County
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 35mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 9 days
Washington County
Timeline: Through Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Power Outage Duration: No less than 24 hours; up to 11 days
THANK YOU, Nick!!!! Been tracking Ida since a couple days ago….Houma and Hopedale…allll that good fishing…. they’re gonna be a WHILE getting back to “Before Ida”. Man, you are golden. God Bless your work!
Thank you very much for keeping us updated and safe
Can you update something about Plaquemines Parish Louisiana , please , they are hardly ever mentioned