9/10/24 445p County-By-County Breakdown for Tropical Storm Francine for Southern MS/AL/LA

The latest from the NHC shows that Tropical Storm Francine is still floating around the southwestern Gulf and it is now drifting northward.

The forecast from the NHC shows the Tropical Storm strengthening into a Hurricane – now a Category 1 Hurricane – before landfall. Max sustained wind shown is 90mph.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
NOW 10/2100Z 25.7N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
48H 12/1800Z 33.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
60H 13/0600Z 35.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 37.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z…DISSIPATED
NHC.NOAA.GOV

Landfall is expect to happen on Wednesday afternoon / evening.

The timeline on the arrival of Tropical Storm-force wind is shown in the graphic below on the left and the percent-chance you see Hurricane-force winds is below and on the right. Notice the Hurricane-force winds are confined mainly to the immediate coastline.

Below is the county-by-county breakdown. The storm is still strengthening, there is a chance this forecast will change by tomorrow. So please take this for now, but check back for an update.

Given the timeline above, please note that all times shown begin on Wednesday and – if needed – move into Thursday morning.

I know this may feel like a stressful situation, but I promise you that if you take the right steps, have a plan in place, and execute that plan, you’ll make it through the storm with far less stress.

And before you dive into the forecast, if you appreciate the work I do and want to help buy me a slice of pizza or a coffee, I’d be grateful. This is a pretty time-consuming process and any help you can offer is always awesome!

Along I-20

Rankin County:

11a — 7p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

7p — 7a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Scott County:

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Newton County:

7p — 7a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 55mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Lauderdale County:

7p — 7a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 50mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Near I-20

Copiah County:

10a — 6p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

6p — 6a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Simpson County:

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Smith County:

6p — 6a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Jasper County:

6p — 6a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Clarke County:

6p — 6a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 55mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

HWY 84 Corridor

Lincoln County:

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Roads may be impassable due to downed trees
— Numerous power outages are likely, have battery backup if needed
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 5p

Lawrence County:

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 5p

Jeff Davis County:

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 5p

Covington County:

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 5p

Jones County:

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 5p

Wayne County:

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 5p

HWY 98 Corridor

Pike County:

9a — 5p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1-2 inches possible.

5p — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 50mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-9 inches.

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Wind will knock over and blow around anything not tied down or anchored
— Roads may be impassable due to downed trees
— Numerous, multiple-hour, power outages are likely, have battery backup
— A Tornado Watch is likely

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Walthall County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Marion County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Lamar County:

5p — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-8 inches.

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Forrest County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Perry County:

5p — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-6 inches.

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Greene County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

HWY 26 Corridor

Pearl River County:

8a — 4p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1-2 inches possible.

4p — 2a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 60mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-8 inches.

2a — 6a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Stone County:

5p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

3a — 7a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

George County:

10a — 5p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

5p — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 55mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

4a — 8a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

MISSISSIPPI COAST

Hancock County:

8a — 2p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

2p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 70mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 75mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Harrison County:

8a — 3p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

3p — 1a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 70mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

1a — 4a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 2p

Jackson County:

3p — 1a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

1a — 4a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 2p

LOUISIANA PARISHES

St. Helena Parish:

2p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 55mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 80mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-10 inches.

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Tangipahoa Parish:

2p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 65mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 85mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-10 inches.

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Washington Parish:

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Livingston Parish:

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

St. Tammany Parish:

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Orleans Parish:

8a — 1p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1-3 inches possible.

1p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 70mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 90mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-10 inches.

11p — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

ALABAMA COUNTIES

Sumter County:

7p — 7a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 45mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-5 inches.

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and some power outages are possible
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Choctaw County:

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and some power outages are possible
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Washington County:

11a — 6p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

6p — 6a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 50mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-5 inches.

6a — 11a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and some power outages are possible
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Mobile County:

6a — 11a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and some power outages are possible
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

MISC REQUESTED COUNTIES

Neshoba County, MS:

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Franklin County, MS:

6a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 5p

Hinds County:

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

St. Charles Parish:

7a — 12p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1-3 inches possible.

12p — 9p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 75mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 100mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-9 inches.

9p — 1a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

One thought on “9/10/24 445p County-By-County Breakdown for Tropical Storm Francine for Southern MS/AL/LA”

becky Jenkins says:

September 10, 2024 at 7:00 pm

This is awesome! I appreciate your hard work! Could you add one more thing to Hancock county Bay Saint Louis is storm surge. High water. Thanks!

Comments are closed.

Along I-20

Rankin County:

Scott County:

Newton County:

Lauderdale County:

Near I-20

Copiah County:

Simpson County:

Smith County:

Jasper County:

Clarke County:

HWY 84 Corridor

Lincoln County:

Lawrence County:

Jeff Davis County:

Covington County:

Jones County:

Wayne County:

HWY 98 Corridor

Pike County:

Walthall County:

Marion County:

Lamar County:

Forrest County:

Perry County:

Greene County:

HWY 26 Corridor

Pearl River County:

Stone County:

George County:

MISSISSIPPI COAST

Hancock County:

Harrison County:

Jackson County:

LOUISIANA PARISHES

St. Helena Parish:

Tangipahoa Parish:

Washington Parish:

Livingston Parish:

St. Tammany Parish:

Orleans Parish:

ALABAMA COUNTIES

Sumter County:

Choctaw County:

Washington County:

Mobile County:

MISC REQUESTED COUNTIES

Neshoba County, MS:

Franklin County, MS:

Hinds County:

St. Charles Parish:

Author of the article:

Nick Lilja

One thought on “9/10/24 445p County-By-County Breakdown for Tropical Storm Francine for Southern MS/AL/LA”

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