Hopefully have all of you have you plans in place and you’re ready for the storm through the rest of today and into tomorrow morning. We have had some minor shifts as well as some dry air and structural developments during the overnight hours and through the day today that have pivoted some of the potential impacts.
Here is a look at Francine on Satellite.
Here is the latest from the NHC:
The structural change has to do with the placement and development of this particular rainband. This “arm” was anticipated to be much closer to the center of the storm and pivoted back a bit more to the south and southeast at this point.
With this arm already developing this far to the east, and the track of the system (more on this in a second) being a bit more rounded as it moves northward, there is a chance that parts of South Mississippi get dry-slotted as the back-edge of this thing gets eaten by shear and dry air after it moves ashore.
Not a guarantee, but a chance.
THE ARM
Take a look at how the model guidance is handling this.
Notice that the first model shown has that “arm” all the way out into Alabama by 9p tonight and the second model shots it just crossing over the state line. Simultaneously, it shows the erosion of the rain and storms from the south side of the system after it moves ashore as well.
Even some of the non-tropical hi-res model guidance shows something similar.
All of this is probably a bit too aggressive with the eastward movement of the arm and the erosion of rain on the backside — but it is along the trend that has been playing out since yesterday which is for this thing to get eaten up by shear and dry air pretty quickly after landfall. And the bulk of the strongest wind, heaviest rain, and threat for tornadoes tied to one specific section of the storm (and not an entire quadrant).
TIMING
The model guidance also continues to slow this thing down, too. Now, model guidance shows the system only to HWY 98 by 3am, rather than HWY 84.
It also shows a more rounded turn to the north. Originally, the turn was going to happen nearly right after landfall, now the turn north may not happen until Hattiesburg.
And this has a BIG impact on the type of weather you may see., If this were to play out, places to the east would see more impactful wind and rain and places to the west wouldn’t see quick as much.
It would also mean that folks north of 98 and all the way up to I-20 would likely see a longer time period of rainfall – leading to higher totals.
SO WHAT’S THIS ALL MEAN?!
A great question.
The bottom line is that it looks like we may see greater impacts a bit farther east – but not by much. On top of that, with the southern half of the storm being eaten away (according to the latest model guidance) a bit quicker, we may also see lower rainfall totals south of HWY 98. And given the slow, we may se higher totals north of HWY 98.
On top of that, the highest tornado threat may also be shifting to the east slightly as we move through later this evening and overnight.
I know many of you have been waiting “all day” for something to happen. And the lack of any action thus far may make you think nothing is going to happen. But as we move through this evening and overnight, the wind is going to pick up as will the rain.
And if you need a county-by-county rundown of what may happen, feel free to check out my forecast from earlier this morning.
Your ongoing dedication to us here in Mississippi, is so appreciated!! I really don’t “count on” the weather here, until I see what information you can give us! Keep up the excellent work.